NCAA Football
2012-12-29 - Rice at Air Force
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF : ARMED FORCES BOWL
Saturday, December 29th, 2012, 11:45AM (4:45PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Air Force are going to play their 6th consecutive Bowl game, a school record. They did suffer a bad period at the end of the season, losing 4 of 5 to finish 6-6 for the season, same as Rice.
However, the rest will have done the Air Force Falcons some good having played 10 straight weeks, and I think we'll see a better defensive performance from them here, in the Armed Forces Bowl, which they know pretty well from having played in it a few times.
Rice has a balanced offence that both passes and rushes, unlike Air Force, who will pound that ball all day. However, just because they are one dimensional doesn't mean they aren't successful, as they rank 2nd in rushing in the country. They will have a lot of success against a Rice stop unit that is allowing almost 200 yards per game on the ground!
As I said, Air force is 2nd in the nation at rushing the football. They have racked up an average of nearly 330 rushing yards per game but also get good performances for QB Cody Getz, who has completed 62% of his passes for 1,127 yards and 8 TDs with just 3 picks. Of course, his best work comes on the ground, where he has 9 TDs himself, gaining 1,213 yards at a whopping 6.4 yards per carry.
I think the the markets are moving and doing so in the right direction, because Air Force are the play here. I can't see them being beaten in this bowl game, not with their superior defence.
BETTING VERDICT
The spread has been climbing steadily and I want to take Air Force before it gets to 3. Let' go with the Falcons to win and cover the 2.5 point spread.
The Pick :
Air Force 35-28 Rice
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Air Force -2.5 @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)
