English League Two
2012-12-08 - Oxford United vs Aldershot Town
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : League Two
Saturday 8th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Oxford United
Oxford United won last time out at home to Northampton (2-1) to send them up into 18th place with 24 points. That's good enough for a 7 point margin of safety over the sides in the drop zone and also 7 to the playoff places.
Wilder's side were 4 games without a win before their victory over Northampton. With the same points deficit to the top 7 and bottom 2 the next few games will really dictate their season.
At home Oxford United are unbeaten in 2 games with 1 loss in 6 at The Kassam. 3 of these games were won against Wimbledon (3-2), Accrington (5-0) and Northampton and the loss to Dag and Red (2-3).
In 5 home games the team has been shut out in 2 but in the other 3 games they scored 9 goals so when they click they are a big goal threat. Defensively 3 clean sheets in the last 5 is excellent so 1 goal may even be enough to beat struggling Aldershot.
Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town lost at home to Port Vale (1-3) in their last league game. The defeat leaves them in 23rd place with 17 points and trail AFC Wimbledon above them by just a point.
Holdsworth's side are better than the results show and I expect them to eventually avoid the drop. Aldershot Town have 1 league win in 6 games but 3 have ended in draws meaning it's just 2 losses which for a side at the bottom isn't too bad.
Away from home Aldershot have been excellent in recent weeks unbeaten in 4. Wins at Southend (1-2) and Burton (0-1) and draws at D&R (0-0) and AFC Wimbledon (1-1) has kept them around the safety place off 22nd for a good month now.
2 clean sheets in the last 3 away from home is very good for a side at the bottom of the league. It's also 4 games since they conceded more than 1 on their travels which gives them every chance of a point in this game.
Betting Verdict
As expected Oxford are the favourites priced around evens and that looks a little short given the away form of Aldershot Town.
Oxford United have just 1 win in 3 at home but it's only 1 loss in 6 so we can't take them lightly. The visitors are 4 unbeaten away from home and have scored in 3 of their last 4 picking up 8 points from a possible 12.
I expect the visitors to score and likewise the hosts. However, given the hosts have scored 2 or more in 3 of the last 4 and Aldershot are good for a goal themselves overs is the play here.
The last 3 away games for Aldershot Town have ended in unders but that is offset by 4 of the last 6 Oxford home games going overs. Ideally we want an open game so an early goal could make or break this bet but given I like the visitors to shock a few in this game it's goals for me.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Oxford United 2-2 Aldershot Town
