English League Two
2012-12-08 - Barnet vs AFC Wimbledon
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : League Two
Saturday 8th December - Kickoff 3:00pm
Barnet
Barnet lost at Cheltenham Town (1-0) before the FA Cup break to leave them rock bottom in 24th with 15 points. The gap to safety is 3 points and against fellow strugglers Wimbledon this is almost must win territory.
Davids/Robson have improved the side dramatically but they still remain bottom. Their side has lost 1 of the last 3 but hasn't won in 4 games which is a concern.
At Underhill it's better with a 4 game unbeaten run. Barnet have recorded victories over Northampton (4-0) and Torquay (1-0) followed by draws with Accrington (1-1) and Oxford (2-2).
Both wins were to nil for the Bees and they haven't kept a clean sheet since. Scoring wise it's 6 straight with a home goal averaging just over 1.50 goals a game.
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon lost their emotional FA Cup tie with MK Dons last weekend but must bounce back soon in the league. The side is languishing down in 22nd place just a point clear of Aldershot below them.
Ardley's side have lost the last 2 league games to Southend (0-4) and at Morecambe (3-1). With the successive defeats the 2 sides below them have closed the gap and this side is very much in the thick of things relegation wise.
Away from home it's 2 defeats in the last 3 with just 1 win in 4 coming at York (0-3). Exeter (2-0) and Morecambe won by 2 clear goals against them and 5 of their 6 away losses this season have been by 2 or more.
In 7 of the last 8 away games this team has found the net at least once. At the other end 1 clean sheet in 6 is a concern with the host team averaging over 1.50 against them.
Betting Verdict
Barnet are the favourites for this game priced over evens. They have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game whilst the visitors played in an emotional FA Cup game which had a lot of press coverage.
Of the 2 I favour the hosts because they are 4 unbeaten at Underhill and have seriously targeted this game with plenty of preparation time. The visitors have struggled on the road and it's 3 straight losses including the cup game so confidence can't be great.
I'm going to back the hosts to win which will occur if they score 2 goals or more in my opinion. Wimbledon have lost the last 8 away games in League Two when the home side has scored 2 or more.
Barnet are averaging over 1.50 goals a game whilst AFC Wimbledon is conceding the same figure. Barnet goals over 1.50 is 2.10 but the win is 2.43 so for me it's a no brainer. The draw no bet or -0.25 line is tempted but given the preparation time and exploits of both sides I fancy the hosts.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Barnet 2-1 AFC Wimbledon
