English Premier
2012-11-28 - Everton vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : England : Premier League
Wednesday, November 28th, 2012, 7:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
What the f*ck?! Arsenal priced at 3.06?! Who are they playing, Barcelona?!
Typical overreaction by the media and the bookies and I'm not about to let this gift go begging. Even if we lose, this is a value punt and one that should be taken on. Arsenal should have beaten Villa on the weekend, instead settled for a 0-0 draw in their 3rd game in less than a week, playing in pissing rain. I've seen a lot worse.
Villa were bound to up their game after their last 2, while Arsenal were fatigued. The worst time to bet on Arsenal is after a great win as the prices drop across the board and they are bad value. But after this blip they're being priced as if they're near the bottom of the table. Everton are still a side that have lost their last 4 meetings with Arsenal, and 2 of those were played right here, at Goodison Park.
Indeed, the last 2 meetings, from last year, saw Arsenal win home and away without conceding. Arsenal are not as defensively weak as they appear to be. Remember, Mannone is no longer in goal, so this is not the defence that blew a 2-0 lead away at Schalke where they were bigger outsiders. But the Arsenal offence is very much the same one that grabbed that unlikely lead, roared back from an unwinnable position at Reading, and tore through Tottenham (sure, a man down but 5 goals? Please)
The last 2 Arsenal games have seen them keep clean sheets. The offence is clicking a lot better but with the likes of Giroud, Podolski and Cazorla kept quiet at Villa, and the unwarranted grief poor Wenger had to put up with from scabby journos, they will be out to correct things.
The return for Walcott is another reason to put our faith in this Arsenal attack to breach Everton's defence that could only draw 2-2 with Liverpool and Fulham, inferior sides to Arsenal. Reading came from a goal down to beat this side and Norwich were here on the weekend holding Everton to a 1-1 draw. I'm not sure whether the odds suggest way too much respect for Everton or too little for Arsenal.
BETTING VERDICT
Am I certain Arsenal will win? Not at all. Knowing my club, we're just as likely to have a crappy night and lose as we are to turn it on and come away with a 3-0 win.
You just don't ever know for sure.
But at 3.06 you'd have to be mad not to have a punt on Arsenal. You really would.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Everton 1-2 Arsenal
