Europa League
2012-11-08 - Molde vs Steaua Bucuresti
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Europa League group E
Venue: Molde Stadion, Molde (NOR)
Thursday 8th November – Kickoff time: 19:00 GMT+1
Molde
Molde is in a good position to defend their title, they top their domestic league with only two games remaining, a point ahead of Stromsgodset and four clear of third-placed Rosenborg.
Retaining their title is Molde’s main objective and being so deep into the season (in Norway they are playing from spring to autumn) it’s no surprise that their focus is on the championship.
That is why Ole Gunnar Solskajer have given playing time to a lot of youngsters that are usually not regulars in his starting line-up two weeks ago in the reverse fixture played in Bucharest. Of course, having so much inexperienced players made Steaua’s job a lot easier and they took advantage winning 2-0.
Molde have been alternating between losses and victories in their last four continental fixtures. They started this group with a loss to Copenhagen, then bounced back with a 2-0 victory over Stuttgart at home before losing to Steaua in Bucharest.
Steaua
High flying Steaua tops the group after three rounds and they are now looking to book a place into the next stage of the competition. Steaua can get there if they win this match and Stuttgart fails to pick up three points against Copenhagen.
The game against Molde two weeks ago was a one-sided encounter with Steaua bossing the game, but only scoring twice because of an outstanding performance from the Norwegian goalkeeper Ole Soderberg, which included saving a penalty in the second half.
Steaua are unbeaten in six European games (W5 D1) since starting their campaign with a 1-0 home loss to FC Spartak Trnava in the third qualifying round. They have only conceded two goals since, both in the 2-2 draw in Stuttgart on matchday one.
Coach Laurentiu Reghecampf is thinking about using a new formation for this match, he’ll probably switch to a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 system which is very popular in Italy, with three central defenders at back.
I think this can actually work, the right and left midfielder that he’ll use have a lot of stamina and will be able to cover both defense and offense which will give Steaua a big plus.
Juventus is using this system in Italy and it worked well for them, I think Steaua has right players to implement this system and make it work for them as well, on a smaller scale of course, Steaua will probably never reach Juventus’ level of play.
The Betting Verdict
One of the main factors to consider here is that Molde may not be fully determined to give 100% in the Europa League and I can’t blame them with just two stages left from the Norwegian league.
If they win the remaining games in their league they will defend their title which would be a huge accomplishment, while in the Europa League they cannot be sure of progressing even if they beat Steaua here. I assume that coach Ole Gunnar Solskajer will once again rest his key players.
I can’t imagine Steaua sitting back and waiting for opportunities to strike on counter attacks even though they have some fast wingers that can cause a lot of damage in those kind of situations, I think the Romanians will try to control the midfield and get an early advantage against what looks to be an inferior opponent.
Using a 3-4-3 system is obviously an argument to see an offensive minded Steaua here, but switching to this whole new formation can also mean trouble, especially in the defense. Under these circumstances I’d say that over 2.5 goals are worth to consider, Molde put two goals past Stuttgart at home so I imagine they’ll be good for at least on goal against Steaua as well.
However, I also like the prices for the away win, Steaua is coming after a series of impressive results culminating with the 3-1 win against rivals Dinamo Bucuresti over the weekend, so I’ll be backing them to continue on this path.
The Pick :
Molde 1-2 Steaua Bucuresti
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Steaua to win at 2.49 at PinnacleConfidence: 5/10
