English FA CUP
2012-11-03 - Morecambe vs Rochdale
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English FA Cup First Round
Saturday 3 November 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Morecambe
Morecambe will be familiar with their opponents as both are members of League Two and they will also feel confident in their ability to move through to the second round having already beaten Rochdale once this season. They have been inconsistent in League Two this season and that sees them at the wrong end of the table, but they are a tough team to play, especially at home.
The side don't come in with a lot of momentum having lost their last 2 League games back to back, although both of those took place on their travels. Morecambe won their last game at home against Southend United and have only lost 1 of their last 4 here, that coming against League One Preston North End in the Football League Trophy.
They have been knocked out in the first round of the FA Cup in each of the last 3 seasons and they have particularly struggled at home in recent cup ties. Morecambe have lost their last 3 home FA Cup ties and they have lost 4 of their last 5 here.
Rochdale
Rochdale were relegated from League One last season and they have put themselves in a position where they can at least challenge for a promotion spot this year and not spend 30 years at this level as they had to prior to their promotion a couple of seasons ago. Their form had been mixed, but the last couple of games may have seen that turned around.
They have picked up 4 points from their last 2 League games after losing the previous 2 games, although they still only have 1 win from their last 5 games since a 2-3 win at Accrington Stanley. That win at Accrington was the 4th straight away win for Rochdale before they were thumped 3-1 at Plymouth in their last away game.
The FA Cup has not been kind to Rochdale in recent seasons as they have lost at this stage in 3 consecutive seasons which has included 'shock' results in the last two seasons as they fell to Bradford last season and FC United of Manchester the year before. Rochdale have failed to win any of their last 7 away games in the FA Cup, losing 4 of those in regulation and another on penalties.
Head to Head
Morecambe beat Rochdale away from home 1-2 in October.
That was the first meeting in 3 seasons when Rochdale earned promotion- they drew here 3-3 here that season.
All 3 previous games at Morecambe between these teams has ended in draws.
Prediction
Rochdale have been one of my favourite teams to back in the over 2.5 goals market when they play away from home and this game doesn't look that different to me.
9 of the last 10 away games Rochdale have played in have featured at least 3 goals, but my only concern is that Morecambe have been effective at keeping clean sheets at home with 3 in a row.
However, this is a Cup game and there will be gaps to exploit if a team is pushing for an equaliser and I do believe Rochdale have shown enough to think they can get on the board in this one.
The layers are offering over 2.5 goals at 1.80 and that looks just attractive enough to me to take it on.
The Pick :
Morecambe 2-2 Rochdale
