English FA CUP
2012-11-03 - Bury vs Exeter
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : FA Cup
Saturday 3rd November - Kickoff 3:00pm
Bury
Bury enter this FA Cup game with League Two Exeter languishing at the foot of the League One table. The priority is survival but a win over lower level opposition might just be the tonic to re-install some belief and confidence in the side.
Blackwell's side are unbeaten in 2 something they haven't achieved all season. The new manager appears to have had a positives influence and it's no shock to see them as favourites ahead of this game.
At Gigg Lane they are even better, currently 3 games without defeat drawing twice with Carlisle (1-1) and Walsall (1-1). The only win came against Hartlepool (2-1) and already you can see getting that second goal is key in terms of winning matches.
In 9 games at home all season, that's the only time they have scored more than once and shock horror it's their only win. It's 8 straight games now that the visiting team has scored here and they average 1.50 goals in this run. Exeter are lower level opposition but if they continue to defend like this an upset could be on the cards.
Exeter
Exeter sit in midtable of League Two and will be looking to gain promotion back to League One this Summer. I imagine this game has very little priority to them and I see this game ending with a victor as neither want a replay.
Tisdale's side haven't won a game in 5 losing 4. Confidence is low and the side that many expected to be right up there in a promotion push is struggling already trailing the automatic promotion places by 8 points.
Away from home it's 2 defeats in the last 3 at Northampton (3-0) and Cheltenham (3-0). They did draw a game inbetween these losses at Dag and Red (1-1) but alarmingly they have won just once away from home in the last 5.
10 goals conceded in 5 games is poor averaging exactly 2 a time. They have only scored once in the last 3 being shut out twice so offensively they are hardly setting the world alight either.
Betting Verdict
The League One side are even money to win this game and I think that's fair. The visitors have very little motivation from what I can see and the same could be said of the hosts but they will want to get this win more then Exeter.
Blackwell has transformed the side and the 2 game unbeaten run is good, their form at Gigg Lane in recent weeks isn't bad either. I expect Bury to win this game but their problem is they struggle to score that second goal.
Fortunately the visitors give up a lot of goals and I think they can score 2 themselves. I also don't see a Bury clean sheet, visitors have had success at Gigg Lane all season so even goal shy Exeter could find joy.
By backing Bury to win but also over 2.50 goals we are getting a much bigger price on the hosts. I can't back their poor backline to shut the visitors out and if they do win it will be in a 2 or 3-1 victory for me. At inflated odds this is the best angle for the game.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Bury 2-1 Exeter
