English League One
2012-10-27 - Notts County vs Doncaster Rovers
A Sports Betting Pick by ArmchairPunter
Football – England – League One
Saturday 27th October 2012 – Kickoff: 1500hrs
Meadow Lane is the next venue as I look at 5th placed Notts County v 6th placed Doncaster Rovers this weekend with just one point and one place separating the two teams.
Notts County
Looking at Notts County’s fortunes first, and you’d have to say that they’ve faltered slightly in recent weeks following a cracking start to the season as Keith Curle’s men put together a run of just one loss in their first nine League One matches. The Magpies then suffered back-to-back home losses against Stevenage and Tranmere Rovers 1-2 and 0-1 respectively that brought them back down to earth again.
When first looking at their results though you’d be forgiven for thinking that they’ve turned things around recently, and you’d be correct up to a certain point; away wins at an off-colour Carlisle United and struggling Coventry City were then followed with a 3-3 home draw against 19th placed Bournemouth who are just above the relegation places.
County’s home record stands at 3-1-3 12/9 but more importantly, it’s now three home matches now without a win and I reckon there’s some value to be had on the back of Doncaster Rovers in this one – more on that later though.
Notts County’s dangermen include Yoann Arquin (5 goals, 5 assists), Alan Judge (2 goals, 5 assists), Jeff Hughes (3 goals, 3 assists), Jamal Campbell-Ryce (4 goals) and of course Lee Hughes (3 goals). They will always be a threat going forward but I just think the odds are incorrect for this match based on recent results and who they were against.
Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster Rovers will be in confident mood of getting something from this match as they are on a four match unbeaten run overall and a five match unbeaten run away from home.
Recent home wins over Shrewsbury Town and high-flying Brentford have actually been overshadowed by the 2-1 win at League One leaders Tranmere Rovers in midweek, and now the teams around Rovers are beginning to sit up and take notice.
Donny’s away record stands at a solid 4-2-1 11/5, and only Stevenage and Sheffield United (4 goals each) can boast a better defensive record on the road in League One at the moment.
Aside from the Tranmere result, Rovers have gone to places like Colchester and Leyton Orient and gained points, so I can’t see why they can’t continue their improved away record at Notts County on Saturday.
David Cotterill (5 goals, 2 assists) is their leading scorer, but they also have the likes of striker Billy Paynter (4 goals, 1 assist), Iain Hume (2 goals) and Chris Brown (3 goals, 2 assists) as valuable back-up and their personnel should be enough to get at least a draw here.
The Betting Verdict :
As mentioned previously, I really don’t think the bookies have given Doncaster enough credit for their recent win at Tranmere and prices for the +0.5 handicap are very attractive indeed.
So, I advise the handicap on Doncaster here in a tight game that could end up in a draw, in which case my pick wins. Could be a 1-1 draw.
The Pick :
Notts County 1-1 Doncaster Rovers
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Doncaster Rovers AH+0.5 @ 1.89 at Pinnacle
