English League One
2012-10-27 - Carlisle United vs AFC Bournemouth
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : League One
Saturday 27th October - Kickoff 3:00pm
Carlisle
After their win midweek Carlisle are now up into 13th place with 19 points. If Abbott's side can follow this up with another on Saturday United could find themselves up into 7th place and just outside the playoff places.
The 3-1 win over Oldham at home was timely as it halted a run of 3 games without a win. 2 of these 3 games were lost home to Notts County (0-4) and at Colchester (2-0). Thankfully that run is over and United will want to replicate their 4 game unbeaten spell from earlier in the season.
At Brunton Park Carlisle were winless in 4 before the midweek win. So to stop a winless run overall and at home is important. The hosts have been shut out in 3 of the last 4 home games so to score 3 must be a confidence booster.
Defensively it's 1 clean sheet in 7 at home and that needs addressing. The visiting sides are averaging 2 goals against at home and that's relegation form rather than that of a promotion candidate.
Bournemouth
Eddie Howe's Bournemouth look a different side with him back. The mid week draw at Notts County (3-3) has left them in 19th place but now the gap to the drop zone is 4 points. Slowly the team is getting away but it's going to take a few more wins before they are comfortably midtable.
Bournemouth are now 3 unbeaten with 2 wins after losing a horrendous 4 straight before Howe's arrival. The team is playing like a title contender dropping just 2 points from 9 and will seriously test Carlisle on Saturday.
Away from home the 3-3 draw at County halted a 3 game losing run thanks to losses at Swindon (4-0), Crawley (3-1) and Coventry (1-0). I was concerned that despite Howe's arrival that the away form would still remain poor but to draw at County is a good start.
Scoring 4 goals in 3 away games is decent enough but the worry is 11 conceded in the same period. Averaging over 3.5 goals against on the road gives you no hope and Howe knows he can't rely on his attackers to score 3 each game just for a point.
Betting Verdict
The bookies can't split the 2 sides and nor can I. The visitors are excellent under the new manager but their away form makes them unbackable.
The hosts ended their winless run at home midweek and will tougher side to beat because of it. As a result I prefer to stick to the goals markets.
I'm backing over 2.5 goals for the following reasons. Bournemouth's away games are averaging almost 4 a game in recent weeks and their home opponents have scored at least 3 in 3 of their last 4 away games.
Carlisle will be buoyed by their win and against this defence they should have some success. Their last 2 home games have had 4 goals a piece and against a side that has just drawn 3-3 away from home I expect at least 3 goals on Saturday.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Carlisle 2-2 Bournemouth
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.50 Goals at 1.90 at PinnacleSports
