English League Two
2012-10-27 - AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : League Two
Saturday 27th October - Kickoff 3:00pm
AFC Wimbledon
Wimbledon's win midweek has seen them rise up into 21st place. With 14 points from 14 games the gap to the drop zone is still only 3 points and a loss on Saturday could undo their midweek win.
Ardley has clearly made an impression as the Dons are unbeaten in 2 games now picking up 4 points. The side still hasn't kept a clean sheet but at least they are picking up points.
At home the win over Bristol Rovers (3-1) on Tuesday put an end to the 5 game winless run. Within this run Wimbledon lost 4 straight to Rochdale (1-2), Torquay (0-1), Accrington and Cheltenham (both 1-2).
The problem is clean sheets and with just 1 in the last 8 it's easy to see why they are near the bottom of the league. Away teams are averaging over 1.50 goals here and despite the hosts scoring at least 1 in 16 of the last 17 they have only won 8 of these games.
Gillingham
Leaders Gillingham have seen their lead at the top shortened to 2 points after their shock home away loss to Torquay (2-1). They now visit one of the league strugglers and will want to bounce back straight away.
The loss ended a 4 game unbeaten run which occurred after they last lost a league game back on 29th September. Gillingham haven't lost back to back games in the league since last February and given the look of the 2 squads that seems unlikely to occur on Saturday.
Away from home the side is winless in 2. Before the loss they drew 0-0 at Oxford but previous won 5 straight by an aggregate of 3-10. On the road they average over 1.50 goals a game which is massive for away sides.
The defence has 2 clean sheets in the last 4 and Tuesday's game was the first time this season that the home team has scored more than once against them.
Betting Verdict
Allen's side are odds on to win this game and that's very short for me. The Dons have a new manager who has got them winning again, Ardley's side have also lost just 1 of their last 4 overall.
The hosts have scored at least 1 home in 16 of 17 so I'm convinced they will get 1 on Saturday. The visitors often feature in open games of football. In the last 4 away games where both sides have scored there has been at least a 3rd goal and that's where my money's going.
Over 2.50 is my bet as I see 2 away goals given the hosts conceded 1.5 at home on average and the visitors score 1.5 away goals on average. Keeping the Dons quiet after winning will be tough and we could see a shootout here despite the gulf in league positions.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Wimbledon 2-2 Gillingham
