Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins Betting pick | 2012-10-07

NFL Football

2012-10-07 - Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

ATLANTA FALCONS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, October 7th, 2012, 1:00PM (6:00PM GMT)

PREVIEW

Atlanta, led by the excellent Matt Ryan, bring their franchise best 4-0 start and put it on the line here against Washington, who are 2-2 but have a dangerous passer in Robert Griffin III. I like the Falcons to make it 5-0.

Atlanta are favourites of just 3 points at over even money ATS because Washington are at home, have a hot passer and a rushing offence that is gaining 176 yards per game so far, and is coming up against a 29th ranked Atlanta rush defence that has allowed 146 on the ground per game. But that's not where this game shall be won.

While Washington have been decent defending the rush themselves, they have one of the worst pass defences in the league. The Redskins are surrendering a whopping 326 passing yards per game, ranking 31st in the NFL. They are hence, despite giving up just 89 yards on the ground, surrender 415 total yards, making them 29th in the NFL, and their scoring defence has let them down too.

That scoring defence is surrendering 31 points per game. It won't do. It's possible to surrender lots of yards but then come up strong in the red zone and force drives to end in mistakes or FGs but this lot give up TDs and it's led to them giving up too many points to be taken seriously.

I realise Atlanta are on the road, but they proved they have what it takes to get it done when they edged Carolina 30-28 and I think that win will buoy them to the confidence required for a win here.

Ryan is completing 69% of his passes, like RG3, but he has thrown for almost 100 more yards, and his 11 TD to 2 interception ratio is far superior to the 4 TDs and 1 interception the rookie opponent has managed. If this turns into a shootout, and it will, expect Ryan and his lot to win by at least a TD.

BETTING VERDICT

I like the Falcons to win this by 7 so will give the points and take them to cover.

The Statistics :

WASHINGTON REDSKINS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-23	L	31-38	H v Cincinnati Bengals
	2011-12-24	L	26-33	H v Minnesota Vikings
	2011-12-11	L	27-34	H v New England Patriots
	2011-12-04	L	19-34	H v New York Jets
	2011-11-20	L	24-27	H v Dallas Cowboys
	2011-11-06	L	11-19	H v San Francisco 49Ers

ATLANTA FALCONS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-23	W	3-17	A v San Diego Chargers
	2012-09-09	W	24-40	A v Kansas City Chiefs
	2012-01-08	L	24-2	A v New York Giants
	2011-12-26	L	45-16	A v New Orleans Saints
	2011-12-11	W	23-31	A v Carolina Panthers
	2011-12-04	L	17-10	A v Houston Texans

HEAD TO HEAD WASHINGTON REDSKINS v ATLANTA FALCONS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2006-12-03	Washington Redskins	14-24	Atlanta Falcons
1994-09-25	Washington Redskins	20-27	Atlanta Falcons
1993-12-19	Washington Redskins	30-17	Atlanta Falcons
1992-09-13	Washington Redskins	24-17	Atlanta Falcons
1992-01-04	Washington Redskins	24-7	Atlanta Falcons
1991-11-10	Washington Redskins	56-17	Atlanta Falcons

The Pick :

Atlanta Falcons 30-23 Washington Redskins

Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet

Take Atlanta -3 ATS @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)

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NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - ATLANTA FALCONS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins football Betting Pick