Italian Serie A
2012-10-07 - AC Milan vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Italy : Serie A
Sunday, October 7th, 2012, 7:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
Both these teams play their football in the San Siro, so it's not really an away game for Inter Milan. Inter are also 3rd in the table, but still priced as the underdogs, despite having won the last 3 meetings with AC Milan, who are 11th. There's value for you.
Inter are now 4 points behind leaders Juventus, with Milan a further 5 behind. Both sides have had trouble at the San Siro but recorded wins here in their last match. AC Milan finally won a home game here, beating Cagliari 2-0, which was also only their 2nd win of the season. They've slumped again since, drawing 1-1 at Parma. Inter edged Fiorentina here by a 2-1 score too, following on from a 2-0 win at Chievo.
The defences have been more or less the same, with both conceding 6 goals, but Inter have scored 10, 3 more than AC Milan, and that has made all the difference. While Milan have just 2 wins, Inter have 4.
To the h2h, and it's funny to see this fixture does not end in draws. It hasn't done since October 2004, when they both failed to score! Since then Inter have won 9 meetings and Milan have won 6, but more importantly, the last 7 have seen Inter triumph 5 times, and the last of those was a 4-2 hammering this May. That counted as a home win, but the 2 derbies before that, in the league and a friendly, ended in 1-0 wins for Inter.
Both teams have been playing away in Europe in midweek, with Milan winning 3-2 in St. Petersburg and Inter winning 3-1 at Neftchi. The fatigue factor is slightly worse for Inter as they played on Thursday.
Keep an eye out for Milito, who has 8 goals in derby meetings with Milan, and had a hattrick against them in the last meeting, Cassano, who has 4 goals in his last 5 league games, and Shaarawy, who has 4 goals in his last 3 games. This game looks like it might turn into a goal fest with at least 3 goals, and it's likely the men mentioned above will be amongst the goal scorers.
BETTING VERDICT
Not that I think it matters, but Inter have won all their away games now, 3 so far, and all without conceding. I think they make it 4 here and at prices well over 3.00 they just have to be taken.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Inter Milan to win @ 3.10 (Pinnacle)
