English Premier
2012-09-29 - Everton vs Southampton
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Everton
David Moyes must have been furious on Tuesday night as his Everton team were surprise losers at Leeds United in the Capital One Cup. There is absolutely no doubt that Moyes wanted to win the competition as he has openly stated the desire to win Everton's first trophy since 1995 and really rubber-stamp the good work he has done at Goodison Park over the last decade.
Contrary to their usual slow start, Everton have been performing well in the Premier League and that has seen them sitting in 3rd spot coming into the weekend. They have picked up 10 points so far and that means they are only 3 points behind Chelsea and they could potentially top the table if results go their way this weekend. Everton are 1-1-0 at home, scoring 3 goals and conceding 2.
The loss at Leeds means Everton have won just 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions while suffering 2 defeats in that time. Everton's form at Goodison Park has been very impressive and they had won 7 in a row here in all competitions before Newcastle United snatched a late draw last time out.
Darron Gibson is out, but Tony Hibbert could return to the squad. The likes of Tim Howard, Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines, Steven Pienaar and Nikica Jelavic could all be restored to the starting line up.
Southampton
The fixture list computer had not been kind to Southampton as they had been given games against the sides that finished in the top three last season in their first four games to open this campaign. The pressure had been increasing on Nigel Adkins as rumours swelled that the owners wanted a 'bigger name' in charge, but a second half performance against Aston Villa and the fans support show Adkins still has lots of backing at St Mary's.
With the side trailing 0-1 at home to Villa last weekend, it would have been easy for the Saints to crumble if they didn't believe in their manager, but they turned it around for a 4-1 win and their first Premier League points of the season. Southampton moved up to 16th in the League table thanks to that win last time out, although they are 0-0-2 away from home, scoring 3 goals and conceding 9.
Southampton refused to let any momentum slip as they beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 in the Capital One Cup during the week with a much changed side. The side have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions going back to last season, the only exception being a 1-4 win at Stevenage in the Capital One Cup.
Tadanari Lee is the only doubt in the Southampton squad as there should be a number of the regular starting line up restored after being rested in midweek.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting between the teams since the 2004/05 season when the sides drew 2-2 at St Mary's.
Everton beat Southampton 1-0 at home that season and they are unbeaten in 7 home games against them.
They have also won 3 of their last 4 at home against Southampton and 5 of those 7 games unbeaten.
Prediction
Over the last few seasons, backing Everton at odds on to win games has not really paid too well and that was also the case earlier this season when they were held to a draw by Newcastle United while losing in the League Cup as an odds on favourite against Leeds United during the week.
They look extremely short to win this game, especially considering the shot in the arm that Southampton would have earned from the win over Aston Villa last week.
However, I have to like Everton's chances considering they have won 11 of their last 14 home games in all competitions, but I don't think the handicaps are the best way for me to go.
Instead, I am going to take the same option as I did for the Manchester City game at Fulham and back Everton to win with at least 3 goals scored in the match.
Southampton definitely have a goal threat in their team as they have scored in 4 of their 5 Premier League games this season including in both away games at Manchester City and Arsenal. In that case, I think Everton are going to need to score at least twice to win the game while it is entirely conceivable that the home side will be able to grab 3 goals on their own.
Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 at home so the 2.00 being offered on an Everton win with at least 3 goals looks a decent shout to me as it is a better price than the main Asian Handicaps offered which need a 2 goal home win to payout.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Everton 2-1 Southampton
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Everton Win and at least 3 Goals Scored (Quatro) @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes)
