English Premier
2012-09-29 - Arsenal vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 12:45pm
This game is live on TV
Arsenal
Arsenal have made a fine start to the new season and hammered in six goals for the second successive game at the Emirates Stadium when seeing off Coventry City in the Capital One Cup. After earning a 1-1 draw at Manchester City last Sunday, Arsenal can really throw down the gauntlet in this one as they bid to prove they are genuine title contenders.
They are 5th in the Premier League coming into the weekend and they do remain unbeaten in their games as they have picked up 9 points to leave them 4 points behind the leaders in the early going. Arsenal have a 1-1-0 record at the Emirates Stadium, scoring 6 goals and conceding 1, although all the scoring was done in their last game against Southampton following a goalless draw against Sunderland.
Arsenal have won back to back games here in all competitions, although they had previously failed to win any of their last 4 here to end last season and open up this. The side have won 10 of their 15 home games in all competitions during this calender year.
Wojciech Szczesny, Tomas Rosicky and Jack Wilshire are all expected to miss out, while Bacary Sagna and Thomas Vermaelan should be in the squad and available for selection.
Chelsea
Chelsea have had a fairly 'easy' fixture list to open the season and this game represents the toughest test they have faced so far as they go to a confident Arsenal side. Last season, we saw Roberto Di Matteo employ 'negative' tactics in many of the big games Chelsea played down the stretch and it will be interesting to see what he wants his side to do in this one considering the outlay on creative players in the transfer window.
They might not have had the most taxing fixtures, but Chelsea still had to earn the points they have so 13 points from a possible 15 has to be applauded as they lead the way in the Premier League. The side are 1-1-0 away from home so far, scoring 2 goals and yet to concede, as they beat Wigan Athletic and drew with Queens Park Rangers.
Chelsea have lost just 1 of their last 9 away games in all competitions and that includes avoiding defeat at Barcelona, Arsenal and Bayern Munich (Champions League Final was played at Bayern's stadium so I count that as an away game even though it technically wasn't). Their one defeat can also be explained away as it came at Liverpool towards the end of the season when Chelsea could have been focusing on the Champions League and it was three days after Chelsea beat Liverpool in the FA Cup Final.
Daniel Sturridge is the only doubt in the Chelsea squad, although he is still expected to return in side for this game.
Head to Head
The corresponding fixture ended 0-0 last season, a scoreline that probably satisfied the home side more than the away one.
That game was the second of their two League meetings, the first ending 3-5 to Arsenal at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal have won just 1 of their last 4 home games against Chelsea, although they are unbeaten in their last 2 here following back to back thumpings from the Blues.
Prediction
Didier Drogba had a great record of scoring against Arsenal for Chelea, but now the responsibility will fall to Fernando Torres who did get a confidence boosting goal against Wolves in the Capital One Cup during the week.
I did fancy Arsenal to win this game at the beginning of the week, but their odds have come in a little too much now and I respect this Chelsea team enough to think they will cause problems.
My real issue is I don't know what to make of Roberto Di Matteo who said he was going to continue with the same tactics that he employed a the end of last season and this is the first really 'big' game they will have played away from home this season so I am second guessing what he will do.
It is is likely that Di Matteo will look to defend deep but use the pace of Eden Hazard and Juan Mata to perhaps counter quickly.
Arsenal have looked threatening going forward in their most recent games and so I am going to be backing the over 2.5 goals option as I do feel both can score.
Before last season, these two sides had played 3 high-scoring games at the Emirates Stadium while 7 of their last 10 games overall have featured at least 3 goals.
Both teams also play high-scoring games against sides that finish in the top four and I project both of these to sit in those Champions League positions come the end of the season. 6 of Arsenal's last 9 home games against sides that finish in the top four have ended with at least 3 goals scored, while 7 of Chelsea's last 9 away games at top four sides have also featured at least 3 goals.
Hopefully neither side is feeling the effects of the early lunchtime kick off and I will be hoping for an early goal to open things up- there was a time when clashes between the top sides were tight affairs, but that seems to have changed in recent seasons and I'll look for that trend to continue.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 (188Bet)
