English Premier
2012-09-22 - Southampton vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Southampton
The pressure is building on Nigel Adkins at St Mary's, although I feel that is very harsh on the manager that has taken them up two Divisions in the last couple of seasons. The owners, however, don't agree and reports suggest Rafa Benitez will be given the job to keep Southampton in the Premier League, especially if the home team fail to pick up points soon.
Southampton remain the only team in the Premier League that are yet to pick up a point this season and it is no surprise they are bottom of the League table at this early stage. They have been unfortunate to have played both Manchester clubs and Arsenal early in the season, but the home loss to Wigan Athletic would be a concern.
The team did win a game in the Capital One Cup at League One Stevenage, but the 4 defeats in the League will have been a real eye-opening experience for the whole squad. Southampton have lost 3 of their last 4 games at home and have won just 1 in 5 going back to last season in the Championship.
Jack Cork, Jos Hooiveld and Steve de Ridder will all be hoping to be passed fit for this League game.
Aston Villa
After a tough start to the season, Paul Lambert asked for patience from the home supporters as he wanted them to stay with him. The fans have responded in the correct manner and the Aston Villa team are beginning to pick up some positive results.
The side beat Swansea City 2-0 at Villa Park last week to move up to 13th in the Premier League table having earned 4 points from their opening 4 games. Villa have a 0-1-1 record away from home, scoring 1 goal and conceding 2 goals after losing at West Ham United and earning a point at Newcastle United.
Villa are unbeaten in their last 3 games in all competitions, making their way to the third round of the Capital One Cup and also earning their 4 points in the League. They have failed to win any of their last 10 away games in the Premier League and they have only scored 4 goals in that time. Villa have lost 5 of those 10 away League games.
Richard Dunne, Gary Gardner and Marc Albrighton are all going to be missing for Paul Lambert.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between these sides since Southampton were relegated from the Premier League in the 2004/05 season.
On that occasion, Aston Villa won here 2-3 after trailing 2-0 at half time.
Southampton have failed to win any of their last 4 home games against Villa, losing 2 of those games.
Prediction
This already looks a 'must win' game for Southampton, but I am not a big fan of backing teams in those situations. However, I think Southampton have been very unlucky with the way the fixture list has come out, although they need to improve on the result they didn't earn against Wigan Athletic.
It won't be easy against an Aston Villa side that should have picked up some confidence from recent results, although they do still look a side that could struggle to find the back of the net on a consistent basis.
Picking a winner in the game looks a tough proposition, although I think I favour the home side to help out the manager that has done so much for the club in the last couple of seasons.
However, Southampton have been conceding goals at an alarming rate and that goes back to last season. In their last 5 games here, including Championship games, they have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of those games.
That leads me to think Southampton will have to score at least twice if they are going to win this game. They are a side that create chances and Villa, despite their 2-0 win over Swansea, did offer up chances for the Swans in that game.
In saying that, I am going to back the over 2.5 goals option at odds against in this game, one where both sides could easily get at least one goal and both are likely to be looking for a big three points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Southampton 2-1 Aston Villa
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00
