Champions League
2012-09-19 - Chelsea vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Europe : Champions League
Wednesday 19th September - Kickoff 7:45pm
Chelsea
The European Champions start their defence of club football's biggest prize on Wednesday at Stamford Bridge against the Italian Champions Juventus.
The Blues have made an encouraging start to the season with 3 wins and a draw from 4 played. Di Matteo's side haven't set the world alight with their performances but as we know it's all about winning in this industry.
At home in the Champions League Chelsea have won the last 6 and 9 of the last 11. The Bridge is somewhat of a fortress for the Blues and in a tricky group winning their first game is very important.
Leverkusen, Genk, Valencia, Napoli, Benfica and Barcelona have all tasted defeat at the Bridge in the last year. 4 of these were to nil including at the time European Champions Barca. If Chelsea get ahead they are normally a very good front runner in Europe and for them the first goal is key.
Juventus
Conte's Juve are back where they belong in Europe's finest club competition the Champions League. Unfortunately the Italian Champions will be without their coach who is serving a touchline ban for not reporting match fixing.
Juve have started the domestic season well winning all 3 games beating Parma (2-0), Udinese (1-4) and just this weekend Genoa (1-3). Juve haven't hit top gear by any stretch of the imagination but to win all 3 and score soo many goals when not at their best is an alarming sign.
The Italians haven't played in the Champions League for a few years so I can't use them stats as they are out dated. However, we do know that they are a huge name in Europe and coming off an unbeaten season domestically is very impressive.
The side is without Del Piero these days but still have an abundance of quality. We all saw what Pirlo did to England in the summer and if he controls the midfield with Vidal and Marchisio we could see a shock on Wednesday night.
Betting Verdict
Chelsea have been drifting all day for this one over in Asia and have now become a silly price to win this game. The Italians must be respected but Chelsea in my eyes are no worse than 45% likely to win giving a fair price of around 2.20. Yet we can get 2.60, 2.60 for the Champions of Europe who are 3 wins from 4 and at home.
Naturally I smell a rat here and have tried to dig deep to see what has caused the drift. The draw is the biggest fear for me as I don't see Juve winning at the Bridge. The back 3 was a total mess at Genoa on Sunday and I can't see Torres, Mata and Hazard letting them off as the Geona attackers did that afternoon.
The value is on the hosts for me and win or lose long term this is best and only way to bet. I will take Chelsea to sneak this in a tight home win but a draw wouldn't shock me at all.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Chelsea 2-1 Juventus
