English League One
2012-09-15 - Stevenage vs Crewe
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : England : League One
Saturday, September 15th, 2012, 3:00PM GMT
PREVIEW
Stevenage have started the season as they finished it, unbeaten. Going back to last season it is now 11 games without defeat for Stevenage, who have 3 wins and 2 draws this term. It sees them sitting pretty up in 3rd with 11 points, just behind the leaders.
Crewe are 13th, having played out a goalless stalemate with Tranmere in their last match, but have had a pair of narrow wins over Coventry and Scunthorpe. However, their remaining 2 games saw them lose 2-1 to Notts County and tellingly 5-1 at Brentford, a side I don't rate as good as Stevenage. There are signs they could get tonked here if they're not careful.
As I said, 11 league games without defeat for Stevenage, who have also gone 13 games unbeaten at home, scoring 21 in total and conceding 1 per game. There is a worry there, because on average they are conceding every game, and indeed, stats show that in 67% of their last 15 home games, they have conceded every time.
Crewe were tough to beat at the end of last season, going on a 16 game unbeaten run to end the season, but they've dropped 2 of their 5 so far, and have conceded 8 already, scoring just 1 per game on average themselves.
I've thought about taking both teams to score (of course I have) but the prices aren't good enough, and as I see the home side netting at least twice, it makes sense to consider them at the better price, even though it has dropped a bit, taking some value away.
BETTING VERDICT
I'll keep it simple and go with the better side, who should make full use of home advantage here. Stevenage are still a good price for a 3rd placed team in a home game. Let's stick with them.
The Pick :
Stevenage
