NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Texas A&M Aggies at SMU Mustangs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
The State of Texas will have a lot of eyes on this game as the Texas A&M Aggies (0-1) travel to Dallas to take on the SMU Mustangs (1-1) in a non-Conference clash. The Aggies were beaten in the opening game of the season against the Florida Gators as they get used to life as an SEC team, but there were enough positives to take forward for a rebuilding team.
It was Kevin Sumlin's first game as Head Coach as he takes over from Mike Sherman, but he would have been happy to see the way Johnny Manziel ran things behind Center considering it was their first game since losing Ryan Tannehill , a 1st round draft pick for the NFL. Manziel should be able to make more plays with his arm this week against a Mustangs Defense that has struggled to protect themselves against the pass this season.
The Mustangs haven't got a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back in their opening 2 games and that doesn't bode well after the way Manziel played last week. He also managed to get things going on the ground so SMU can't afford to drop men into coverage, even less so after they have allowed 5.1 yards per carry in their opening games.
I expect Texas will have more running room so Christine Michael could have a big game- they are not going against a SEC Defense now and the Mustangs have been gashed on the ground already this season.
I don't know how much SMU will be looking forward to this game if they had seen the Texas A&M Defense in action last week in one of the major televised games. They swarmed the Florida Offensive Line and recorded a staggering 8 sacks, while they managed the same total against SMU last season.
The Mustangs have given up 3 sacks in their opening two games, but they won't have faced a Defensive Line like this so Garrett Gilbert will need to be smart when reading the Defenses behind Center. SMU haven't been completing a lot of their passes so far so there could be a lot of pressure on him if Zach Line cannot find any running room in this one.
SMU have rushed for 3.7 yards per carry, but Texas were strong in that aspect against Florida in their opener. That means Gilbert will have to make the plays and he might not get the time if the Aggies are anything close to how they played last week.
Head to Head
Texas A&M have met SMU twice in the last 7 seasons since being regularly opponents up until the mid-90s.
The Aggies have won both of those recent home games, covering the spread on both occasions.
They haven't played here since 1992 when Texas were the 34 point winners to cover the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
SMU are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games.
They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against schools from the SEC.
Texas are 21-43-1 against the spread in their last 65 road games.
They have won their last 7 games against the spread when playing schools from the Conference USA.
Prediction
It was a tough home loss for the Texas A&M Aggies last week, but I think they will bounce back this week and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they showed enough Offense and Defense last week to suggest they are going to be far too strong for a Conference USA team, while Texas A&M match up well on both sides of the ball against SMU.
Second, despite not being regular opponents, Texas A&M will have all the information they need through Kevin Sumlin who was previously coaching in the same Conference as SMU and had covered the spread in the last 3 games against them.
Third, Texas A&M beat SMU handily enough at home last season and while that may provide a revenge factor for the Mustangs, the inter-State rivalry means the Aggies will be taking the game plenty seriously and look to build momentum before the big home game with Arkansas at the end of the month.
The Pick :
SMU Mustangs 17-34 Texas A&M Aggies
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Texas A&M Aggies - 12.5 Points @ 1.95
