Icelandic Football
2012-09-16 - IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Grindavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football - Icelandic top league - Round 19
Sunday 16 September 2012, Kickoff 16:00
With only four rounds to go the top battle is over since FH Hafnarfjordur lead by ten points and only need two more points to formally secure the title. However, the battle for the European places and for survival in the top league is far from over with many teams yet involved.
How this will result in the end is impossible to predict so bare these factors in mind when betting on the last few rounds.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
After six straight wins in rounds six to twelve IBV had climbed into the top battle alongside FH Hafnarfjordur and KR Reykjavik. However, they haven‘t managed to keep up their good from and haven‘t won in last four games, drawing two and losing two. The losses came away against FH and at home against Keflavik who have been very strong on the road.
The scoreless draw at home against IA Akranes in last round places IBV in 4th place with 28 points with an overall of 8 4 6, 28:16. Not scoring as many goals as the top three teams IBV have the strongest defence in the league and only FH Hafnarfjordur comes close to them, having conceded one more goal.
Striker, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, was accepted back to the team and has played last two games without making a difference so whether he will play against Grindavik is hard to say. They might think they won‘t need him against the visitors this time since the latter have been terrible in last games and are already relegated.
However, IBV have to put everything into this game since they are in a hard battle for a Europlean place which is obviously very important since that‘s where the money is. IBV need to get their striking force together because they have only scored a single goal in last four games. Managing to do so they will certainly have a great chance of grabbing all three points since they have only conceded five of those 16 goals at home.
Grindavik
Excluding one year, Grindavik have played in the top league since 1995 which is quite remarkable given how small the town is. Around 2000 they managed some good results but other than that they have almost always been in the relegation battle, often saving themselves in last rounds. However, they will finally go down this time under the command of former national team manager, Gudjon Thordarson.
After a terrible performance at home against Breidablik in last round where they lost 2-4, having trailed 0-4 after 30 minutes, Grindavik are rock bottom with only ten points, eight points behind Selfoss and ten points behind Fram Reykjavik. With only twelve points left in the pot it‘s quite obvious that Grindavik won‘t be able to save themselves this time.
Grindavik‘s overall is a poor 2 4 12, 25:47, and they have conceded a rediculous amount of goals, thirteen more than the next team. In fact, they are close to breaking the record of most conceded since the 12 teams league was founded in 2008. So far, Selfoss hold that record with 51 goals for the whole of the 2010 season.
Grindavik never have been able to produce a real home advantage and the attendance is bad with only just over 200 people attending the game against Breidablik in last round. Their manager has also been criticized alot for using excuses like so many players have been injured and that he didn‘t get all the players that he wanted. This is propably right in some part but he really needs to take some blame himself.
Grindavik‘s away record is identical to their home record at 1 2 6, but they have scored 15 goals on the road compared to 10 at home. Looking at the points they managed on the road we see that they won Stjarnan who have been struggeling at home this season, and drawed against 11th placed Selfoss and, surprisingly, away against FH in the first round.
Grindavik have lost last three games with a scoreline of 10-3 and getting their scoring up won‘t be easy against the strongest defence in the league. On top of that, if Grindavik don‘t get their act together in the last rounds they will also break the lowest point record which is 13 points, set by IA Akranes back in 2008, the first year of the 12 teams league.
Head to head
Looking back to 1998 it‘s pretty even. IBV have won 12 of the 26 games while Grindavik have 9 wins. IBV won the away game 1-3 this season after losing three in a row. IBV have lost last two home games against Grindavik without scoring.
There is no special trend in the amount of goals in the games but the average is pretty low over the years, being 2.42 goals per game, the lowest I remember doing previews this season.
Betting verdict
IBV Vestmannaeyjar are certainly the huge favorites here, even though they have been struggeling a bit lately. Don‘t forget that those games have been against much stronger opponents than Grindavik. Grindavik have been so terrible in recent games that it‘s hard to see them getting anything out of this game.
IBV have to win this game to stay in the European hunt and by doing so they could jump into 3rd or even the 2nd place. With tough games against FH, Valur and Fram left to play for IBV they will surely want to use the chance against relegated Grindavik to grab those vital three points.
The only reasons I‘m not rating IBV as high as 75% are that IBV are on a dodgy run and since Grindavik seem already relegated one can never know how that will affect the players. Maybe they will get more relaxed and perform better than recently. However, I highly doubt that and the only question seems to be to find a value bet because a straight win for IBV is priced pretty low, averaging at 1.34.
In the three losses in a row, Grindavik have also been losing all three at halftime, and therefore I‘m going for IBV to win securely by leading after both halfs.
The Pick :
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3-0 Grindavik
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take IBV Vestmannaeyjar to win HT/FT @ 2.0 (Paddy Power)
