NCAA Football
2012-09-08 - ULM at Arkansas
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, September 8th, 2012, 7:00PM (12:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Amongst the later games on Saturday evening we have Arkansas, now ranked #8 in the nation, hosting Louisiana-Monroe (ULM), who had their bye week in Week 1 and are so only now kicking off their campaign. Not a good way to start, with what should be a thrashing. Understandably, the spread is set at 30 points!
ULM were 4-8 last season, have not gone to a bowl game in the 6 years since it joined the FBS, and have not done well when opening their campaign with early games against top schools. Last year they faced Florida State early and were blanked and blown out 34-0!
Arkansas have faced ULM before, 9 times in fact. Each time, the Razorbacks have won, and the last meeting, 2 years ago ended in a 31-7 result to the Hogs. Last week they opened their campaign with a 49-24 win over Jacksonville State and I think they will improve here.
I'm not going to prattle on here because I'm not going with the ATS bet for the game. Arkansas are 30 point favourites and that number has actually fallen by a half point. Arkansas will win, but they have a massive lookahead spot here that goes against them because they play Alabama next.
With the national champions on deck next, there is no way Arkansas play this at top level the whole way through. I like backdoor covers but not when they go against me, so let's leave that alone because ULM aren't exactly doormats.
Arkansas have to start well and pull away in order to pull starters later in the game. That is what I am predicting, and the 1st quarter ATS bet seems the only sensible way to get involved with this game.
BETTING VERDICT
Arkansas will win this at a canter, but I'll take them on the 7 point spread to cover the 1st quarter.
The Pick :
Arkansas
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Arkansas -7 points for the 1st quarter @ 1.90 (Pinnacle)
