World Cup
2012-09-07 - Netherlands vs Turkey
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Internationals : World Cup Qualification
Friday 7th September - Kickoff 7:30pm
Netherlands
Van Gaal's Holland host Turkey at the Amsterdam Arena in probably the game of the night as 2 every good sides meet in this group opener. The Dutch are on a low following their disastrous Euros campaign that saw them lose all 3 games and return pointless. Hopefully the new manager can restore some national pride and get the Oranje off to a winning start.
Germany (2-1), Denmark (1-0), and Portugal (2-1) exposed this fragile defensive unit. The Dutch often soo good in attack but equally as bad in defence were found out at the top level this Summer. The new manager has virtually the same squad to choose from but will be hoping he can stop the leaks at the back.
Holland have played a friendly since the Euros losing 4-2 to Belgium last month and that's not a good omen ahead of this game. In the last qualifying campaign Holland kept 5 clean sheets against San Marino (2), Moldova, Finland and Hungary. These are hardly sides to set the world alight. Holland conceded exactly 1 goal on 3 occasions but also 3 to Sweden and Hungary (in the other game) so I'm not expecting a clean sheet here.
Their talent is going forward, when qualifying for the Euros they scored 37 goals with 21 coming at home. There is of course an 11-0 win over San Marino in there but this side scores goals for fun and that shouldn't change under the new manager.
Turkey
Turkey failed to qualify for the finals of the Euros following their 3-0 aggregate defeat to Croatia in a play-off. The Turks played some good football but their hopes were dashed after they crumbled 3-0 in the home leg.
Away to Holland first up is a tough one but at least they can get it out the way. Also given how badly the Dutch are playing at the moment they have a chance of causing an upset.
Turkey played in 7 friendlies following their Croatia defeat and won 4 of them against Ukraine (2-0), Portugal (1-3), Bulgaria (0-2) and Georgia (1-3). Interestingly there were no draws as the other 3 games ended in defeats to Slovakia (1-2), Finland (3-2) and Austria (2-0). Unfortunately all defeats came away from home where the side is usually the most vulnerable.
In the previous qualifying campaign they won just once away to Kazakhstan so expecting them to win at Holland may be too much for them. The side lost 3-0 in Germany but did hold Belgium (1-1) and Croatia (0-0) so perhaps maybe it's wrong to write them off entirely.
Betting Verdict
Turkey are very hot and cold with their away record a bit of a concern. The Dutch defensively worry me but they should have too much in this one especially as they are at home. The fixed odds of around 1.50 doesn't seem too bad a price but the value is long gone on the -0.75 line which is now up to -1.
The best bet here is over 2.50 goals, Holland score goals for fun but also concede them at an alarming rate. The Dutch beat Turkey 1-0 in a friendly back in 2010 but the side has changed a great deal since then and I see the Turks getting a goal on Friday.
Turkey beat Portugal 3-1 in Portugal not long ago whilst Belgium beat the Dutch 4-2 just last month. Both sides look better going forward for me and I like the price on 3 goals or more.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Netherlands 2-1 Turkey
