World Cup
2012-09-07 - Bulgaria vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Internationals : World Cup Qualification
Friday 7th September - Kickoff 7:45pm
Bulgaria
Penev's Bulgaria host Italy on Friday night looking to beat the European Championship Finalists for the first time in competitive game. The only win in 6 against the Italians was in a friendly back in 1991 and it's going to take a big performance to do so in this game.
This game will be played at the Stadion Vasil Levski which holds 43,000 supporters so the atmosphere should be electric. Bulgaria haven't been great at home in recent games having won just 1 of their last 7. The good news is that this win came in their last fixture against Cyprus however this 1-0 win was only a friendly. The 5 defeats and 1 draw that proceeded is a concern given the majority were competitive games.
In recent friendlies the side has shown some promise. 1 defeat in the last 4 with 2 wins is encouraging. In this run Penev's side have recorded wins over Cyprus at home and remarkably Holland in Holland! The fear is that all their best results come in games of no real importance and when the pressure is on they normally crumble.
Italy
The Auzzurri exceeding expectations at the Euro's knocking out England and Germany on route to a final clash with Spain. Unfortunately the Spanish were too good on the day and Italy suffered a big defeat.
Prandelli is doing a great job as this side goes through a transitional period. Many of the great defenders are gone and he's now adopted an attacking shape which has brought out the best in players like Pirlo and Balotelli. Unfortunately the latter misses this game but Pirlo as ever will be pulling the strings in the midfield.
Having lost to Spain in the European Championships Final, Italy then lost to England 2-1 in a friendly. Fortunately for them Bulgaria are not as good as these two sides and Prandelli will be looking for all 3 points here in a toughish group for the Italians.
In the last 2 qualifying campaigns Italy have failed to lose any of their 10 away games. Whilst this goes back before Prandelli, the side won 6 drawing 4 and have scored in 4 of the last 5 competitive games.
A worry is this side has only scored more than 1 goal in recent away games once. This was against Estonia but the good news is that in 3 of the last 4 away from home Italy has also kept a clean sheet.
Betting Verdict
These 2 last met in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. Italy won at home 2-0 but were held in Bulgaria in a 0-0 draw. This time around I think there is a chance of a draw most likely 0-0 or 1-1.
Italy don't score enough goals with more often than not just 1 finding the back of the net as documented above. Bulgaria are not exactly world beaters going forward but having beaten Holland they certainly won't be afraid of the Italians.
I'm going to take a bet on Italy to win by a 1 goal margin here as I feel there's some value in the price. Italy are without Balotelli and they may struggle to break down the Bulgarian's. 1-0 could be enough but given this side has lost many of it's world class defenders a Bulgarian goal would not surprise.
I think Italy will just edge this one and for the price on offer, a 1 goal win seems more than fair to me.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bulgaria 0-1 Italy
