Icelandic Football
2012-09-03 - Fram Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 18
Monday 3 September 2012, Kickoff 19:15
While the top battle is pretty much over the bottom battle certainly is not.
In this game the hosts are in the latter battle and need to fight for their lives in the last games of the season. Strange thing is that the visitors aren‘t totally in the clear since they could get sucked down to the relegation zone in the last few rounds.
Fram Reykjavik
A few rounds ago it seemed certain that Fram would escape relegation since Grindavik and Selfoss were so bad and seemed doomed to go down. However, while Grindavik aren‘t much better, Selfoss have come alive making Fram‘s position more dangerous.
Fortunately for Fram they have also improved a bit losing only once in last four games. Still, with only one win in those four games, they haven‘t been able to part with the relegation zone and are now only two points ahead of Selfoss. Fram‘s strong draw against KR Reykjavik in last round keeps them in 10th place with 17 points with an overall of 5 2 10, 23:29.
Fram haven‘t yet made a draw at home, winning three and losing five. The wins came against Grindavik, IA Akranes and Breidablik. While conceding in last five games Fram have made up for that by getting their scoring up, with a total of eight goals in those five games. This is quite interesting since their best striker, Steven Lennon, has left the club. They have now scored three more goals than they did for the whole of last season.
Knowing that Selfoss have a tough task hosting 2nd placed, KR Reykjavik, Fram will certainly put much power in the game against Fylkir since a win here while Selfoss lose would get Fram five points clear of Selfoss.
Fylkir Reykjavik
Not long ago Fylkir were in the 4th place looking to battle for a European place. However, they are now uncomfortably close to the relegation zone and could get sucked down there if things go the worst way for them. Losing some key players recently seems to be affecting them.
In last round they lost 0-1 at home against FH Hafnarfjordur which puts them in 9th place with 23 points with an overall of 6 5 6, 22:30. They have scored the second fewest goals in the league and only found the net one time in last three games. Their away record is 3 2 3 which is almost idenctical to their home record.
Fylkir‘s loss against FH was their third in last four games and they have only managed a single win in last five games. With Fram scoring so much in last games Fylkir will certainly need to be more effective in front of the goal than in last few games.
What is worrying for Fylkir is that if they lose here and Selfoss also win in their game, the latter will only be five points behind them with twelve points still left to play for. It seems unlikely that Fylkir will go down but they could need one more win to secure themselves. A draw against Fram would also be quite acceptable for the visitors.
Head to head
Many games and looking back to 2000 we have 25 battles between the two. Fylkir have had the better with 11 wins while Fram have won 6 times.
Fylkir won 1-0 at home this season. The games tend to have low scorelines with last three resulting in 1-0, 0-0 and 0-0. Five of last seven were under 2.5 goals an the average in all 25 games is 2.64 goals.
The Betting verdict
This could be close but I think Fram Reykjavik are the favorites given the team‘s run lately and what‘s at stake.
Fram need the win to keep Selfoss away from them and they won‘t get much better chance to do it than against dodgy Fylkir‘s side. Fylkir, on the other hand, would certainly escape any relegation danger by winning here.
I don‘t think Fram will lose this game and actually think they are overpriced. They have scored a lot lately while Fylkir don‘t score much and they do have much more at stake.
The Pick :
Fram Reykjavik 2-0 Fylkir Reykjavik
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Fram Reykjavik to win @ 2.38 (Paddy Power)
