English Premier
2012-09-02 - Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premier League
Sunday 2nd September - Kickoff 4:00pm
Newcastle United
The Toon have picked up where they left off from last season with 3 points from 6. Pardew's side are under more pressure this year following last year's brilliant 5th placed finish.
However, having to balance the Europa League and the demands of the Premier League will be a tough ask for this squad. In the first game after a Europa League game last week, Newcastle lost at Chelsea. Hopefully on Sunday they don't slip up against Villa.
Newcastle United opened with a 2-1 home win against Spurs which was a little fortunate. The away side hit post and bar before Ba scored a very good opener. Newcastle eventually won the game 2-1 which is a testament to Pardew, winning when not at 100^% is a great habit to have.
Since then 2 games against Atromitos were comfortable enough as the Toon won 2-1 on aggregate with a much changed side featuring in both legs. The first defeat came away to Chelsea as the European Champions had just too much for this side. However, they played better in the second half and missed a couple of really good chances to get back into the game.
Newcastle United only lost 3 times at home last season and have won 5 of their last 6 at St James Park. Having lost to Chelsea last week this side has a really good chance of returning to winning ways against a struggling Villa on Sunday.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa have made an awful start languishing in last place having lost both their opening 2 games. Lambert is a good young manager and should get Villa moving in the right direction sooner or later but this start is a little worrying.
On opening day West Ham won 1-0 in a tight game at Upton Park which was a bitter pill to swallow. Up next, at home to Everton I expected a strong Villa performance. However, they were shocking going 3 down before half time and their second half goal was purely a consolation as the side was dominated from start to finish.
Midweek Villa got their first win of the season knocking out lower league Tranmere in the Cup with a much changed lineup. Hopefully this win is a confidence booster for Lambert's side because after what Everton did to that last time out they can't be too optimistic coming into this one.
Aston Villa are now on a shocking run of 12 games without a win in this league. We know scoring goals is a problem and they have failed to scored more 1 in their last 10 games. If they are going to beat Newcastle or even draw I think they need 2 on Sunday which statistically looks unlikely.
Betting Verdict
Newcastle are rightly favourites for this one but the cira 1.60 price isn't for me. Villa must get better and we may see a backlash from them now that they have a win under their belt.
Unfortunately for the away side Newcastle have won the last 3 against Villa at home 2-1, 6-0 and 2-0. Given the performances of the 2 sides so far it's hard to side with Villa but with the prices on offer Newcastle just aren't ruthless enough to win this well for me.
In 7 of the last 10 games both sides have scored when Newcastle have hosted sides in the lower half of the league. In last year's games both sides scored and with Villa having Bent back this year they should get 1 on Sunday.
A worry is that if Villa score it will only be 1 given their dreadful stat regarding 2 goals or more in a game. I was tempted by overs but I will go against the grain of Villa's last game and back most goals to be in the second half.
Villa were 3 down to Everton by half time last week but I'm sure Lambert will have really addressed this midweek and the clean sheet v Tranmere is an encouraging start. All of Newcastle's goals v Spurs came in the second half and I see Villa keeping the Toon at bay for 45 when in the second half it will open up.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa
