Olympics
2012-08-08 - Russia vs Lithuania
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Olympic Basketball : Quarter Finals
Wednesday 8 July 2012 - Tip Off 2pm ET
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This is a huge Quarter Final between two nations that are historically rivals due to their close proximity as well as the fact that Lithuania were once part of the larger USSR. For a long time, it was Lithuania that dominated this sport, but the Russians now have a team that looks capable of winning a Medal at these Olympics.
Russia were the surprise winners of Group B, finishing ahead of the much fancied Spanish team and also ahead of Brazil and Australia, all three teams expected to finish above the Russians before the tournament started.
The team won 4 of their 5 Group games and their only loss came in a dead rubber game to end the Group when Australia scored a buzzer beating basket to take the win. Both teams had already been cemented into first and fourth respectively so it was a game played without the urgency or pressure of earlier games.
Winning the Group also means Russia will avoid meeting the heavy favourites, the United States, until the Gold Medal game at the earliest, although there is a prospect of a repeat game against Spain in the Semi Final.
Lithuania were perhaps a slight disappointment in the Groups considering they are the Number 5 Ranked team in the World. They won just 2 of their 5 games, beating the two African nations who were the weakest teams in the Group, but they were blown out by Argentina and crumbled in the second half against France.
Their other loss was the most valiant one they had as they came the closest out of all the teams so far to actually knocking off the United States. Down the stretch, Lithuania were down by 1, but they ended up on the wrong side of a 5 point loss and showed what kind of dangerous team they are when they get hot.
The likes of Linas Kleiza can shoot well from the perimeter and that could be the key for the Lithuania team if they are to progress to the Semi Finals.
On the other hand, Russia have looked very impressive so far in the tournament and they are playing some very tough defence which has allowed them to knock off Brazil and Spain already in this competition. Only the Brazilians have allowed fewer points so far, although Russia are the third lowest scorers in the last eight (Lithuania actually sit one place lower in that category).
Prediction
This has all the makings of a close, passionate battle and so the 7.5 points on offer for Lithuania looks a little too good to pass up in a game that I think could still be in the balance with a couple of minutes left in the fourth quarter.
I expect Russia will try and clamp down on the three pointer that Lithuania can be very effective at providing, but I also think they are going to find it tough to shut that down completely with some of the talent in the Lithuanian team.
Russia have been a revelation so far in the tournament, and they are rightly favoured, but this does seem like a lot of points to give a team that has shown their capabilities in close losses to France and the United States.
The Pick :
Russia 75-72 Lithuania
