Olympics
2012-07-29 - Brazil vs Australia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Olympic Basketball : Group B
Sunday 29 July 2012 - Tip Off 11:15am ET
Basketball Preview
It is not going to take a genius or an 'expert' to tell you that the United States of America basketball team is the stone-wall favourite to win the Gold Medal at the Olympic Games and anything less would be right up there as the biggest shock of the Games regardless of what happens elsewhere.
With that in mind, a lot of the nations come to the Games with the first priority of trying to get to the Semi Final and guarantee at least one 'Medal' game.
Brazil and Australia are no different with both nations having pretty poor records over the last few years. Australia are fortunate that they have the weakest 'qualifying' section of all the teams (they basically play New Zealand to decide it) and while this is their thirteenth appearance at the Games, they are yet to win a Medal.
The Brazilians have been in the shadow of Argentina over the last few years on the basketball court, but they will be looking to rectify that this year. They actually failed to qualify for the last three Olympic Games, but will be using this one to inspire their youngsters who will be given an automatic berth when Rio hosts the 2016 Games.
With both of these teams avoiding the USA in the Group stage, they do want to finish as high as possible to give them the best chance to avoid the strongest team in the competition until the Final. However, Spain are the favourites to win the section so that means one of these teams would actually likely prefer finishing 3rd in the section to make sure they are not paired with the USA in the Quarter Final or Semi Final.
At this stage, neither will be worrying about that and will want to get off to a good start and avoid putting pressure on themselves with Russia and China both potentially dangerous opponents in the Group.
The Brazilians do have the stronger team on paper, particularly as they bring Nene while the Australians are missing Andrew Bogut who missed a chunk of last season and is getting ready for the new NBA season.
A lot of pressure will fall on the Australian perimeter shooters if they are to win this game as Brazil look dominant in the front court with the likes of Nene, Tiago Splitter and Anderson Varajeo. I imagine Brazil will be looking to get the ball down into their bigs as much as possible and that should open up shooting areas for the likes of Leandro Barbosa and Alex Garcia.
However, Australia do have some talented players like Patty Mills and Joe Ingles that will be able to score a lot of points and power the Australian team forward.
Head to Head
These two nations played an exhibition against one another on Monday and it was Brazil that picked up the double-digit win.
Australia and Brazil have not met one another, before that, for a couple of years when the Aussies took the win by 3 points.
They also beat the Brazilians at the World Championship in 2006, that victory coming by 5 points.
Prediction
With the way the Groups have been divided, this is already quite a critical game despite being the first one either will have played at the Olympics.
The likes of Spain and Russia look strong so the losing nation in this one will have added importance on games with Great Britain and China and that pressure can bring its own problems.
I like the Brazilian team if I am honest, I think they have a nice mix in their front and back courts, while their size is a definite strength. However, I am a little concerned with their lack of success on the international stage in the last few years and Australia have enough scorers in their team to make this interesting.
My issue with Australia is whether they have the depth to keep their players fresh and still be competitive and that is where I think Brazil will end up making the difference in this game.
On Monday we saw the difference the size of the Brazilians made and I think that is likely to be the case again in this Olympic match. I like the Brazilians to win in a game that will be closer than Monday, but still enough for them to take the cover.
The Pick :
Brazil 84-75 Australia
