Euro 2012
2012-07-01 - Spain vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Final
Sunday 1st July - Kickoff 7:45pm
Spain
Vicente Del Bosque's Spain are in their third major final in a row and are potentially 90 minutes away from being the first team ever to win 3 major tournaments in a row. Stopping them in their quest for history is fellow Group C counterparts Italy in what looks a very tight game to call.
The 2 sides met in the opening group game back on June 10th and Spain just like in the 2010 World Cup dropped points in their opening game. The Italians took the lead only for Spain to equalise in a game that ended 1-1. I don't think that game will have a huge impact on tonight's game but the fact that Italy held the World Champions and gave them a "proper" game shows there is no inferiority complex from the Italians.
As expected the Spanish went on to win the group with 2 wins against Ireland (4-0) and Croatia (1-0) which set them up against France in the last 8.
The French were awful, even playing 2 right backs to contain the Spanish and it failed miserably given the first Spanish goal came from that side. Spain won 2-0 thanks to a late penalty and really dominated this one with the French registering just 1 shot on target all game.
In the Semi Final against Portugal, Bento's side outplayed Spain for 60 minutes but then the Spanish took charge and missed a few good chances to win the game in 90 minutes. The game ended 0-0 and the scoreline remained that way after extra time meaning a penalty shoot out. Fabregas eventually scored the winning penalty to send Spain to the final and as expected they are favourites to win this game.
The 2 clean sheets so far in the knockouts extends Spain's amazing run of not conceding a knock goal in the last 2 tournaments. The defence is clearly locked in and getting a goal against them looks a tall order.
The only negative is that Spain have not beaten Italy over 90 minutes in a competitive game for some 90 years! However, France in the Quarters had a similar record and they embarrassed themselves. Records are made to be broken and the Spanish would love to get rid of this hoodoo whilst creating history going for their third straight title.
Italy
The Auzzurri have shocked many as they find themselves in another final. The runners up in 2000 and World Cup winners in 2006 knocked out many people's favourites Germany in the last round to set up this colossal tie against Spain where the winner takes all.
As mentioned above the sides met in Group C with a 1-1 final scoreline. The Italians went with a 3-5-2 that day and looked good up until Spain brought on Torres and soon the backline was stretched. The same formation was used against Croatia and once again the Italians led only to draw 1-1.
In their final group game Italy came out with a 4-3-1-2 which has served them well. A 2-0 win over Ireland meant a second place finish was obtained and a game against England in the last 8. After dominating for a 120 minutes the Italians felt a little unlucky having to play out a penalty shoot out against the English. Still, after Pirlo's wonderful penalty Italy went on to win the shootout 4-2 and progress to play Germany.
The Germans like the Spanish have an awful record v the Italians and that stood up as the 4/1 underdogs romped home against Low's men. It was strange to see Italy play so well and give their opponents very little. The midfield of Montolivo, Marchisio, De Rossi and Pirlo is sublime right now keeping the ball sensationally well and creating plenty for Balotelli and Cassano to feed off.
This deadly due up front combined for Italy's first on Thursday night with "Super Mario" grabbing a brace. Italy needs Balotelli to keep that form going in this game as we all know the Spanish will have a lot of the ball and chances may come at a premium.
Betting Verdict
This game looks really hard to call, being Italian I of course would love to see the Azzurri win this game but how can you go against Spain.
Everyone has wrote this side off on numerous occasions only for Del Bosques side to just keep on winning and here they are once again in the final. In their last 2 finals the scorelines were 1-0 and 0-0 after full time and I expect another scenario like this on Sunday.
The line is at 2 which is understandable given how tight the Spanish defence is and we may see keep ball if/once Spain get ahead. I think this line is spot on so I will focus my main bet on the to win to nil market.
Spain to win in 90 minutes is over evens but I feel more value lies in a win to nil bet. The Spanish haven't conceded a goal in knockouts for years and if they win this does scream 1-0/2-0. The fear of a 0-0 of course exists given it's a final as well as Italy doing a "Germany" on Spain. But I think given the quote and given how Spain's games seem to go this way, my money unfortunately is them winning to nil.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Spain 1-0 Italy
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Spain to win to nil at 3.1 with Pinanclesports
