Euro 2012
2012-07-01 - Spain vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football : Euro 2012 : Final
Sunday, 1st July 2012 - Kickoff 7:45pm
SPAIN
Spain are attempting to make history on Sunday and become the first team to defend their European title, and the first team to win three major tournaments in a row.
The Spainards have been formidable in knockout play in that run, keeping nine successive clean sheets in Euro 2008, World Cup 2010 and Euro 2012 elimination games.
Spain play a possession game, keeping the ball for long periods with their "tika taka" style of short passing play, and it can be frustrating to watch at times as it can take Spain 10-12 passes sometimes to bring the ball over halfway - even when the opponents are not pressing.
Combine that patient approach with the 4-6-0 formation that Spain have tired at times - playing without a striker - and it's easy to see why some fans have started to complain about the Spanish formula.
ITALY
The Italian side has been a revelation so far at this tournament, playing with a style and verve going forward that has not been seen for some time and frankly was not expected by ANYONE prior to Euro 2012 starting.
Italy's warm-up matches were poor, including a 0-3 defeat at the hands of Russia, and after more scandal in the domestic game in Italy there was even half serious talk about Italy dropping out of the Euro 2012 competition.
But, Italy drew 1-1 with Spain first up, and have grown in confidence with a draw against Croatia and a win over Ireland. That was followed by a penalty shootout victory over England and then that famous 2-1 win over Germany.
Still, we must remember that Italy have still only managed to win two games out of their last eight, and are very much an untested outfit - having never been behind in this tournament.
One man who could hold the key is Mario Balotelli. His two goals against Germany put Italy in this final and the striker will be the biggest danger to Spain - or he could blow a fuse and sulk and pout his way to a poor performance.
Head to Head
These two met in the opening game of Group C and played out an entertaining 1-1 draw. Italy were arguably the better side on that occasion as Spain tried out the 4-6-0 formation - prefering to play no striker instead of either Fernando Torres or Alvaro Negredo.
Italy and Spain are facing each other for the 31st time in their history. The Azzurri have 10 wins and Spain have eight, while there have been 12 draws.
Prior to the 1-1 draw, Italy beat Spain 2-1 in a freindly in August 2011.
The Betting Verdict :
Spain are the form team - and play the sort of game that makes it very hard for opponents to create an upset. Italy can upset of course - but Spain are a extremely solid unit.
So I expect Spain to dominate possession, dominate goal chances, defend effectively, and probably take one of those chances to win a low scoring game.
You can double your money taking Spain to win - and that's a good bet I think - but given the low scoring natuire of finals I'm going to personally push the boat out a little further and take an exact score bet.
The nature of this game seems to have 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 written all over it, and as I'm favouring Spain to have the edge, then taking Spain to win 1-0 at Bet365 seems to be a good play.
The Pick :
Spain 1-0 Italy
BEST BETTING TIP :
MAIN BET :Take Spain to win 1-0 at 5.50 at Bet365
The 5.50 price might not be the highest, but Bet365 are also offering "Bore Draw" insurance which will refund the bet stake if the match finishes 0-0 - and that's insurance worth having.
