Euro 2012
2012-06-28 - Germany vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Europe : EURO 2012
Thursday, June 28th, 2012, 7:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
Spain are into the finals to defend their crown, and await the winner of this match to see who will be their challengers. Public money is on Germany, has been for a while actually, and I see no reason to doubt they will knock Italy out to set up the dream final.
Germany rolled to 3 wins in the group stage, beating Denmark, Portugal and Holland, before beating Greece 4-2 in the QF match. Their current form is quite brilliant, winning 15 straight competitive games, a new record! However, victory over Italy would be a first, as in 7 previous competitive meetings in big tournaments they have failed to do so, losing 4 times and drawing the other 3. But bear in mind, Germany have been near flawless when in the semi-finals of the Euro. 6 times they have been here and in all but 1 occasion they have gone to the finals.
Italy have not lost yet under their current manager. They started the tournament well, scoring the only goal Spain have conceded in the whole tournament but ending up drawing. They drew again against Croatia by the same 1-1 score before brushing aside Ireland, which isn't saying much. Against England they were blanked for 120 minutes and trailed the penalties before coming back. Personally, there is enough there to suggest they are going to struggle against the Germans.
Yes, Germany have let in a few goals in this tournament, but those goals have come when they are comfortably ahead (like the penalty conceded against Greece), while the attack has looked lethal. Podolski, Klose and Gomez more than anyone else have looked scarily good, and Italy will surely concede over 90 minutes, while I am not convinced they will fid a way through the German defence.
The odds on the German win are about right. No one expects anything but a win for Germany, despite Pirlo getting a lot of attention from the media for his cheeky penalty against England. For as good as that was, and as brilliant as he is in his position for the Azzurri, he could not help his team find a goal over 120 minutes against an England side whose defence is a lot more suspect than the Germans.
BETTING VERDICT
Germany will win, but in my opinion it will be by no more than just a goal. The safer bet is to simply take Germany to win at prices around 1.92.
It makes sense to have a gamble and take them to win by exactly 1 goal as Italy will set out to defend and this will likely be a low-scoring game. Italy may well try and take frustrate Germany for long periods to cause a lapse in defence, while the Germans will expect this and play the game accordingly. I expect a 1-0 finish, with a chance for 2-1, but at this stage I can't see anyone running away with the game by more than 1.
The Pick :
Germany
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Germany to win by a 1 goal margin @ 3.75 (Bet365)Consider:
Germany to win @ 1.92 (Pinnacle)
