Euro 2012
2012-06-28 - Germany vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Semi Final
Thursday 28th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Germany
The Germans have swept through this tournament with 4 wins from 4 and now are 90 minutes away from another final. Up next are rivals Italy in what looks a tough game to predict.
Being placed in the "Group of Death" didn't seem to bother the Germans as they quite and somewhat easily disposed of Holland, Portugal and Denmark.
Germany won the group with 9 points after a grinding 1-0 win over Portugal, blitzing Holland 2-1 and then a more workmans like win over Denmark 2-1.
In the Quarter Finals we saw a bizarre Germany win 4-2 over Greece. I say bizarre because Germany looked to be coasting only to allow Greece back into the game. The Germans then assumed a 4-1 lead in a dominating spell of 15 minutes in the second half only to concede a late penalty. This team has a lot of goals in them and certainly look good for scoring at least one v the Italians midweek.
As ever Ozil pulls the strings in this side and has been my player of the tournament so far. Up top Gomez has 3 goals and was unlucky to be rotated last time out against the Greeks. I expect the Bayern man to start this one as well as Podolski and Muller who were rested last time out.
Italy
The Azzurri have surprised a few with their progression into the last 4. I saw many pundits actually saying Italy to finish last in Group C was a decent bet and it's the same pundits who have already written off the Italians. Historically Italy has performed well against Germany but even so this will be a huge test for a tired Italian side.
Prandelli's side have drawn to Spain and Croatia 1-1 whilst beating Ireland 2-0 in their final group game to eventually finish second behind Spain. In all their group games Italy has scored first but has only scored more than one goal once which has come against the statistically worst side in the tournament.
In the next round Italy faced a strong England side. The game was eventually won on penalties after the 0-0 scoreline after 120 minutes. Still the 0-0 did not tell the true story because Italy dominated the game and could/should have won in my estimations by a couple of goals.
The best priced 4/1 Italians have never lost to Germany in a competitive match as well as making the final in 80% of their semi finals. So if you are a historical punter, value lies with Italy. However, I recall France having a great record v Spain and look how that turned out!
A worry for Italy is that they played 2 days after Germany and then the game went to penalties. The Italian side must be feeling it after the England game and the chances are Prandelli may need to rotate with Nocerino, Diamante and Chiellini pushing for starts. Historical data suggests the Italians may be value but with Germany looking strong and the fatigue I think Low's side may have too much.
Betting Verdict
Germany are the only side to have won all their games this tournament and with their 4 wins are now up to 15 games in their winning run. This is no surprise given they have 9 goals these championships which not only is the best but looks massive when looking at Italy's tally of just 4.
Germany are a shade under evens and probably that's a little big given the quality and physical condition of the 2 sides. A better bet may be to back Germany to win by 1 goal as Italy despite not looking as good defensively as they did in qualifying they have yet to lose and even concede 2 goals to any side this tournament.
The price to win by 1 goal is 3.75 and this will be my bet on the game. Italy and Germany both to score is odds against and tempted me given how well Italy played v England. But given the Germans will press which England didn't they may stifle the Italians and a 1-0 2-0 win might be on the cards. With the odds on offer I will take the chance that Italy keeps this close and this ends in a tight German 90 minute win.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Germany 1-0 Italy
