Euro 2012
2012-06-28 - Germany vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Semi Final
Thursday 28 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
These two nations are two of the most successful in the World and both will feel confident they can move through to the Final of the European Championship.
The Germans will be looking to get back to the Final having fallen short at that hurdle four years ago. It is still quite surprising to me that they are currently in their longest drought of winning a major international tournament (16 years) since first winning the World Cup in 1954. Italy won a major international tournament in 2006 when they took the World Cup and they actually beat Germany in the Semi Final that year, while they will be hoping to reach the Final of this event for the first time since 2000.
Germany have looked the most impressive team in the tournament so far, but they will be well aware that you don't win prizes for being pleasing on the eye. They have won all four games they have played in the competition, but I think I am right in saying that no team has won this tournament by winning every game they have played.
They beat Portugal 1-0 in the opening game in a tight game, but have been much better in seeing off the challenge of Holland, Denmark and Greece.
Joachim Loew will also have been pleased in beating Greece 4-2 in the Quarter Final by resting a number of his main forwards and that should see them in a good place for this Semi Final. The likes of Lukas Podolski, Mario Gomez and Thomas Muller are all expected to be restored to the starting line up.
Italy were not really expected to be a threat in the tournament, but they have looked like a very good side at times. They earned a 1-1 draw with Spain in their opening game and looked the more threatening side for much of that game, although they looked a little leggy against both Croatia and the Republic of Ireland.
The team looked very menacing in the Quarter Final against England and it was a surprise to see the latter even hold out for the penalty shoot out after the Italians missed a number of clear chances. Unlike Germany, Italy have actually won just one of their four games at this tournament in regulation.
There are some concerns about the fitness of some key players after they were forced to play 120 minutes against England and the fact that they have had 48 hours less than Germany to recover for this Semi Final. Ignazio Abate, Giorgio Chiellini and Daniele De Rossi are all needing intensive treatment to get ready for this game, while a lack of squad depth means there are unlikely to be too many changes made to the starting XI that are not enforced.
Head to Head
Germany and Italy drew 1-1 in a friendly game played in Dortmund in February 2011, their first meeting since Italy beat the Germans in the same City in the World Cup Semi Final of 2006.
Italy had actually won the previous three meetings between the nations before that latest draw, although one of those wins needed extra time to be completed.
Interestingly, Germany have never beaten Italy in a competitive game, although those kinds of runs have already been ended by other nations in this tournament.
Prediction
The biggest complaint I had about England from their Quarter Final loss to Italy, aside from the ridiculously defensive stance, was the lack of tempo in their play as they allowed the Italians to stroll around the pitch and Andrea Pirlo to dictate the pace.
It was the first match that Italy actually didn't look tired after the 70 minute mark as they have in other games in the tournament and that says more about England than it does about anyone else. I don't expect Germany to be so generous and I expect their up-tempo and fast counter attacks are going to take their toll on the Italians in this game.
Germany will look to get on the front foot early and they also have the advantage of having had a couple more days rest than their opponents and the luxury of resting some of their important players to keep them fresh for the remaining few days of this tournament.
With the doubts about some of the Italian players' fitness, I have to think Germany will be too good for Italy. However, I wouldn't be that surprised if Italy manage to get on the scoresheet as Germany have not kept a clean sheet in their last three games and can look a little suspect at the back despite having some top players.
Taking that to heart, I am going to back Germany to win the game and at least three goals to be scored.
The Pick :
Germany 2-1 Italy
