Euro 2012
2012-06-27 - Portugal vs Spain
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Semi Final
Wednesday 27 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
These two Iberian neighbours meet in the European Championship Semi Final and the stakes could not be higher. Portugal were an unfancied team at the start of the tournament, but they always have a chance when they have a player like Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up.
On the other hand, Spain are the reigning European and World Champions, but they have been fighting against outside forces that continue to claim their style is 'boring', particularly when they play a system without a recognised forward. Vicente Del Bosque won't be too concerned about the criticisms as long as his side keep moving through the tournament, but there has to be some pressure on the players to prove their manager correct as he will be hammered by the press if Spain go out of the competition.
Portugal lost their opening game of the tournament against Germany in a game they were criticised for being a little too defensive minded and not utilising the pace they have in the forward line.
However, they have followed that with three wins from three games as the beat Denmark, Holland and the Czech Republic and Cristiano Ronaldo has started firing by grabbing three goals in the last two games.
Paulo Bento would have started the same XI for the seventh game in a row, but Helder Postiga has been ruled out for the tournament and that means Hugo Almeida will get the opportunity to lead the line.
The Spanish have made it clear that Portugal are more than a one man team in Ronaldo, but they are also aware that stopping the second best player in the World is critical to their chances of making it through to their third consecutive major international Final.
Spain have been a mixed bag in the competition so far, beating the Republic of Ireland and France comfortably, while really struggling in a 1-0 win over Croatia and being held to a 1-1 draw by Italy. They have continued to play without a recognised striker by employing Cesc Fabregas in a forward role and they use that in a bid to keep control of possession, the best way for them to ensure they are defending properly.
It is not clear whether Del Bosque is going to implement Fernando Torres in this game, but I would be surprised if they change their system against a team like Portugal that can keep possession as well as anybody.
Head to Head
Spain beat Portugal 1-0 in the last 16 in the World Cup 2010 thanks to a second half goal by David Villa.
The last time they met in the European Championships was in the 2004 event that was hosted by Portugal- On that occasion, Portugal won 1-0 in the group stage to knock out Spain.
Their last meeting overall came just four months after Spain won the World Cup, but they were humbled 4-0 in Lisbon.
Prediction
I was gutted that Spain were given a penalty in injury time during their win over France as that game had pretty much gone exactly the way I predicted with limited chances and possibly a goal separating the two sides.
It's one of those tournaments when a little bit of luck is needed, but you can only cap the game as well as you can and hope that the luck lands on your side.
Portugal and Spain are likely to play a game similar to the one that France-Spain played in the last round and similar to the one they played against one another in South Africa a couple of years ago.
I expect Spain to try and control possession in a bid to keep Cristiano Ronaldo as quiet as possible, while I do think Portugal, despite their protestations, will look to defend in numbers and make life difficult for the Spanish tika-taka system.
Like I said in the France game, I would not be surprised at all if there is only a solitary goal in this Semi Final and I think Spain are more likely to be the ones to get it. It could be tight and tense, but taking Spain to win 1-0 looks the way to go.
The Pick :
Portugal 0-1 Spain
