Euro 2012
2012-06-27 - Portugal vs Spain
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Euro 2012 QF
Venue: Donbass Arena, Donetsk
Wednesday 27th June – Kickoff time: 21:45 GMT+2
Portugal
Portugal has reached their third European Championship semi-final in four attempts, but they’ll have to eliminate defending champions and huge favorites Spain in order to get a place in the final.
The Seleccao played a solid game against the Czech Republic in the previous round, both teams were afraid to take chances, but Portugal gradually took over the control of the game and Cristiano Ronaldo headed home the only goal of the game with 11 minutes left and led his team into the semis.
The stats are not on their side when it comes to Spain, their rivals have a better head to head record with 15 victories and just 7 defeats. Portugal suffered elimination on their previous major tournament by Spain, in the last 16 of the 2010 World Cup (1-0).
Helder Postiga suffered a hamstring injury against the Czech Republic which means that Hugo Almeida will play in front supported by Ronaldo and Nani, but that’s the only change Paulo Bento will make for this match.
Probable Portugal line-up :
Patricio
Pereira, Alves, Pepe, Coentrao
Meireles, Veloso, Moutinho
Nani, Almeida, Ronaldo
Spain
Reigning world and European champions will have to take on Portugal in order to qualify for a third successive major final, a performance that only West Germany in the 1970’s achieved.
It still seems that Spain are not yet in the peak of their form, they’ve struggled a bit against Croatia, but then went on and eliminated France with so much ease, the French side barely touched the ball during the entire game.
It must have been frustrating for the French having so many high profile players in front like Benzema or Ribery and not having the chance to take advantage of their qualities. Spain bossed the game in large parts making France putting in a lot of effort just to chase the ball.
There a more and more voices that say that Spain’s game is getting boring, it’s not good for the spectacle of the game to monopolize possession, but they are the only team in this competition that actually can play like this then it would be stupid not to take advantage of this fact.
I find it enjoyable to be honest, even when they are only keeping the ball without creating any damage they do it with so much ease, they don’t panic not even when they are in their own box, they find a way to get the ball out by passing low. Not to mention their pressing which is one of the keys to their overwhelming possession, the Spaniards are suffocating their opponents once they’ve lost the ball and they manage to get it back sooner than any other team.
Probable Spain line-up :
Casillas
Arbeloa, Ramos, Pique, Alba
Xavi, Busquets, Alonso
Silva, Fabregas, Iniesta
The Betting Verdict
Everyone is talking about Ronaldo and the decisive role he can have in this game, most think that he’s Portugal’s only chance to break down this dominant Spanish side and with good reason.
Despite Ronaldo have never scored against La Roja (in three games), he made an excellent tournament so far scoring both goals against the Dutch and the decisive header against the Czech Republic. He is without doubt Portugal’s biggest threat with 29 efforts on goal and 14 strikes on-target which accounts for almost half of his side’s total.
However, all these stats will be irrelevant if he won’t be given the chance to impress. Portugal will be definitely a defensive minded team in this one, hoping to exploit Nani and Ronaldo’s speed on counter attacks. Ronaldo will be up against Arbeloa, not the fastest player I know, but he has the advantage of knowing Ronaldo better than anyone from playing together at Real Madrid.
No surprises from Spain here, we’ll see more of the same and by that I mean a team that will control the game with authority and I’m sure they’ll also find a way to score at least one goal again.
I like Portugal, I backed them against Denmark, Netherlands and Czech Republic, the only problem is that they will be facing Spain and just like in Barcelona’s case I just can’t bet against them, it would be the most frustrating thing watching a game and hoping that a team that barely touches the ball will score against them.
I think Spain and Germany will be in the final, when I might have to reconsider my position, Germany has been impressive and they might find a way to win. In other words, if Spain were to lose a game in this competition then Germany would be the best (or only) candidate to pull it off.
The Pick :
Portugal 0-1 Spain
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
