Euro 2012
2012-06-24 - England vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Quarter Final
Sunday 24 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
A lot of people in England were very happy that the team managed to get through Group D with the added bonus of missing playing Spain in the Quarter Finals, but that seems a little disrespectful to Italy as far as I am concerned.
Expectations coming into the tournament were probably as low as I remember for England with many people suggesting just getting out of the Group would be a real achievement. However, those expectations have steadily increased as each passing game has gone by and now there is a real sense that England can reach the Semi Finals.
A 1-1 draw with France opened the tournament for Roy Hodgson who took over as manager just a few short weeks ago. They followed that up with a come from behind win against Sweden and then a nervy 1-0 win over Ukraine to qualify for this spot.
England also got a huge slice of luck in the Ukraine game as a clear goal was not given for the co-hosts despite an assistant referee standing just yards from where the ball crossed the line. That luck can sometimes be crucial and they won't be the first side this season to ride their luck in a cup competition and win it as an unexpected team.
Roy Hodgson is expected to name an unchanged side from the one that beat Ukraine in their final group game.
Italy were a little fortunate to get through the Group stage as Ireland had them on the backfoot in the final Group game when anything less than a win would have seen Italy exit the competition. They won that game 2-0 in the end thanks to a last minute goal from Mario Balotelli to ease the nerves and that followed 1-1 draws with both Spain and Croatia in their first two games.
There has to be some concern with the fact that they seem to start off strong and then fade towards the back end of games and it is no surprise that they have been a little out on their feet in all three of their games in the second half. Italy don't have the depth in their squad as they used to so changes are not as game changing as they can be for other teams.
Cesare Prandelli has told his players to 'play without fear' in this game and he is expected to make a couple of changes to his starting XI. One of those changes is enforced as Giorgio Chiellini has been ruled out with an injury, while Mario Balotelli could be restored to the starting line up with his knowledge of English football and particularly of club team mates Joleon Lescott and Joe Hart.
Head to Head
These two nations will be meeting for the first time in ten years since Italy won a friendly game at Elland Road.
The last competitive games between the teams was in the World Cup 1998 Qualifying section- England won the war by finishing top of that Group and forcing Italy to get through the Play Offs, but it was Italy who took 4 points from their matches with England.
Prediction
It is absolutely no surprise to me that the layers cannot separate these two teams as I do feel they are very closely matched.
For all the talk about England's defensive shape and organisation, it seems to have been conveniently forgotten that they have offered up a number of chances to their opponents in their first three games here in Poland/Ukraine and I have no doubt that Italy will create chances against them.
My bigger concern is that the Italians don't seem to have the stamina in their side that other nations do and they have been a rocking towards the end of games. They don't have the game-changing players off the bench either so any changes they make does end up making them a little weaker on the field and we have seen both Spain and Croatia recover from deficits against them this tournament, while Ireland will consider themselves a little unfortunate not to have done the same.
I can see Italy definitely starting the stronger of the two teams tonight and I imagine England will look to keep things tight for the first 20-30 minutes as they have set up to do in every game they have played.
However, Italy have shown enough in their first three games to suggest they may go into the break with the lead, but that is when it will get a little tough for them. Despite Cesare Prandelli's mentality, the Italians seem to naturally start defending a little deeper when they have the lead and we have seen poor second half performances, especially compared to their first half performances, against both Croatia and Ireland and that could be the case again today.
England have a size advantage even without Andy Carroll on the field and I can see a situation where they fight back and avoid defeat in the second half after maybe being behind in the first half- as the Italians get tired, England may just take advantage with the pace they have on the bench.
It is a risky pick, but it looks like one that could possibly have a lot of legs tonight and that is Italy to lead at half time, but the game to end in a draw. It happened to the Italians against Croatia and was close to happening against Ireland and it looks the best way for me to take on a side that has started strongly in every game in the tournament and then faded a little down the stretch.
The Pick :
England 1-1 Italy
