Euro 2012
2012-06-23 - Spain vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Euro 2012 QF
Venue: Donbass Arena, Donetsk
Saturday 23th June – Kickoff time: 21:45 GMT+2
Spain
The European and world champions had to suffer in their last match from group C against Croatia in order to reach the quarter finals of the tournament, but a 1-0 victory secured their top position in the group with 7 points.
La Roja had the possession, but they failed to break down a determined defensive barrier set up by Slaven Bilic before substitute Jesus Navas walked the ball into the net two minutes from time. Croatia had their chances in the second half, but Spain were lucky to keep a clean sheet.
Spain will have to play better than they did against Croatia if they want to eliminate France, La Roja have never beaten France in a competitive fixture, their last meeting at the Euros was back in 2000 when their neighbours with Laurent Blanc in their team secured a 2-1 victory in the quarter finals.
There are no fresh injury news which means that Vicente del Bosque is likely to stick with his usual staring line-up, with Fernando Torres in front supported by David Silva and Andres Iniesta.
Probable Spain line-up :
Casillas
Arbeloa, Ramos, Pique, Alba
Xavi, Busquets, Alonso
Silva, Torres, Iniesta
France
France started the competition well, with a draw against England and a convincing victory against co-hosts Ukraine, but the defeat to Sweden has cast doubts over their chances to go all the way.
Laurent Blanc’s side was actually unbeaten in 23 games before losing to Sweden on Tuesday, which makes the defeat even more surprising.
Central defender Philippe Mexes serves a one-match suspension against Spain, which means that Rami’s partner in that area will probably be Arsenal’s Laurent Koscielny. If he’ll be the one to replace Mexes, Koscielny will make his competitive debut for France.
After failing to impress against Sweden, Hatem Ben Arfa is unlikely to get another chance in the starting line-up, which means that Laurent Blanc will start with Benzema in front supported by Ribery and Nasri.
Probable France line-up :
Lloris
Debuchy, Koscielny, Rami, Clichy
M’Vila, Diarra, Cabaye
Nasri, Benzema, Ribery
The Betting Verdict
France were the last side to eliminate Spain from a major international tournament (World Cup 2006) which should make this clash even more interesting.
Despite Spain’s poor record against France at final tournaments, their elimination at this stage of the tournament would be considered a surprise, hence the bookies price on France to qualify at 3.25.
France have some serious firepower in front with the likes of Benzema, Ribery or Nasri, but I’m not sure how much damage they will be able to do as Blanc could assign them more defensive duties then usually against such a dominant side. They will have to make the most of their chances on counter attacks if they want to get a result here.
Against Croatia we’ve seen a Spanish side that was hard to recognize, they were finding it hard to create clear scoring chances, but even when they are not at their best they still find a way to win. The level of concentration against France should be much higher so I expect them to deliver a convincing performance.
I don’t know if 1.85 is the right price or not in a quarter final of a European Championship against a solid team like France, but I just can’t see past a Spanish win in this one. France looks good on paper, but I can’t see them holding on for too long against a side that I’m sure will look way better than they did against Croatia.
The Pick :
Spain 2-0 France
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Spain to win at 1.85 at PaddyPowerConfidence: 8/10
