Euro 2012
2012-06-24 - England vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Quarter Final
Sunday 24th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
England
The Three Lions were probably expecting to play Spain going into their game with Ukraine but after the French lost to Sweden and England beat the hosts. It is they who topped the group ahead of the French and now face Italy for a place in the last 4.
Hodgson's side have looked quite solid defensively in their 3 games thus far. Against the French they suffocated Blanc's side with 2 banks of 4 whilst Young and Welbeck also put in some shifts helping out their midfield. England took the lead which was perfect for their sit deep and counter tactic. Joe Hart was beaten by a Nasri strike through a group of players but that's all France got in a hard fought 1-1 draw.
In a "must win" game v Sweden we saw a very open England that traded blows with the Swedes in a 5 goal thriller. England took the lead, went 2-1 down then won 3-2 with Welbeck scoring a stunning winner.
Finally up against Ukraine, England just needed to avoid defeat to qualify and thanks to a Rooney goal they did just that. What they didn't expect was for France to lose their game and as a result England have topped the group.
Rooney's return to the lineup gives England an extra option going forward. He knows Welbeck well and plays the number 10 perfectly, creating and scoring goals. The only worry is that he hasn't played many full games lately so 2 games in a week may be too much for him.
Italy
The Auzzurri qualified in second place behind Spain in Group C. For coming second their reward is a tie against Group D winners England for a place in the last 4.
Prandelli's side like England grafted hard for a point against the group favourites in this case Spain. The Italians took the lead through a very well taken Di Natale goal but quickly conceded to Fabregas. The midfield and wingbacks faded as the game went on but the Italians held on for a point.
When many expected them to win against Croatia, there was an element of de ja vous as Italy took the lead only to draw 1-1. This time they led before half time in a 3-5-2 system once again but out wide they suffered and were left with just a point.
The crunch game was against already eliminated Ireland, anything other than a win and Prandelli's side were out too. In a 4-3-2-1 Italy bossed the game and the extra man in midfield gave them a very high amount of possession. Once again they scored first but unlike in the previous games Balotelli found a second very late on to seal the win and book Italy's place in the last 8.
Despite the clean sheet against Ireland, the defence just doesn't convince me. Ireland at times got very close to scoring and their attack is of weaker level to England's. Croatia and Spain scored whilst Italy adopted a 3 man defence but I expect them to come out in a 4 this time around. Whether they can keep out Rooney and co remains to be seen.
Betting Verdict
The bookies can't split these 2 with both sides best priced at 2.90. I really think this will be a tight game and it's of no surprise to see the line set at 2 goals.
Italy seem vulnerable to concede 1 with the English scoring in every game not a good omen. Going the other way, Italy should have 1 goal in them but they rarely score 2 these days with the Ireland game an exception.
1-1 could be a runner for sure in this as could both teams to win by 1 goal if you dutch it. Instead I will go for a more optimistic punt on the game with both sides finding the back of the net.
Both to score is odds against but given that Italy are not soo great defensively I see an England goal. At the other end, England just don't keep the ball and Ukraine (who are a poor side) had a ton of chances. If Italy can get Pirlo on the ball they should open this side up a few times and as a result get a goal themselves.
England's wins are because of tough grinds where the midfield has been put through some brutal work loads. With games coming thick and fast can they keep it going against a side with an extra man in the engine room? Being Italian, I hope this is where the Azzurri win the game but I just can't call this game in terms of a fixed odds price.
Good Luck
The Pick :
England 1-1 Italy
