Euro 2012
2012-06-23 - Spain vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Quarter Final
Saturday 23rd June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Spain
World and European Champions Spain eventually won Group C to set up this intriguing game against the French. Del Bosque's side haven't found top gear just yet but you could argue that they are warming up nicely as we head into the knockouts.
In the first game against fellow qualifiers Italy, Spain went with 6 midfielders and no front man as Fabregas started ahead of Torres. The side lacked penetration and didn't stretch Italy, as the result the Italians grew into the game and went in front. Fabregas leveled soon after but once Torres or a striker to be more specific was on, Spain dominated and they weren't going to make this mistake twice.
The draw could have jeopardised Spain's quest for top spot but with Torres back in the side a 4-0 thumping of Ireland soon restored their power in the group. Up against Croatia, we perhaps saw the first moment of vulnerability as Bilic's side missed 2 glorious chances to get in front. Torres started but wasn't influential, Negrado came on and found the winner just 2 minutes from time. The win ensured top spot and also means the Spanish can't meet favourites Germany until the final.
Spain's run is now 2 losses in 48 competitive games and a staggering stat of conceding no goals in the knock out stages on route to the World and Euro wins in 2010 and 2008 is phenomenal! Come crunch time, this side is ready and fully deserve their favourites tag.
France
Blanc must be fuming knowing his side had top spot in their hands going into the last group game only for his side to massively disappoint and finish second.
Les Bleus drew their opener against England in a cagey game which both sides didn't want to lose but the French looked the better side. In game 2, France hardly broke sweat as they comfortably beat Ukraine 2-0 to give themselves a great chance to top Group D with a win over (nothing to play for) Sweden in game 3.
In the final game, France just didn't turn up. Ribery missed all his passes, Benzema once again (like v England) dropped deep and kept shooting from distance and the defence was run ragged. The Swedes not only dominated the midfield but also up front where Ibrahimovic caused Rami and Mexes problems all night long.
The 2-0 loss meant England topped the group and now they face Spain in what looks the worst draw possible. The defeat may also have psychological affects with France breaking their 20 game unbeaten run which was the best of any side at these Euros.
A worry for France is that Benzema hasn't scored. Many's tip for the Golden Boot just hasn't found his feet in this tournament. Against England his link up play was good but he never threatened the goal, against Ukraine he got 2 assists but again didn't get a goal. Finally in the last game v Sweden his finishing was poor but this time his set up play was poor too. For France to cause an upset they need to get the Madrid back in the goals because if he replicates his Real form not even the Spanish will be able to contain him.
Betting Verdict
Spain are 1.90 favourites to win this game against the French and perhaps pre game that might be a little short. I expect this to come in as we get closer to the game which will reduce the value in further.
Don't get me wrong, Spain "should" win but I don't rate them greater than 50% likely so I would want evens here. The stat of Spain clean sheets in previous knock out rounds is unreal but may mean nothing come Saturday night.
Despite Benzema's poor form, I expect a backlash from Blanc's side and I think they can score on Saturday. Whether that is good enough for the win I'm not so sure?
I was tempted by both sides to score but instead I will back Spain to score 2 or more at odds against. For me this is an indirect bet on Spain to win as I don't see this ending 1-0 to the current holders.
The beauty is, once Spain score 2 even if they lose or draw we still have a winner at a better price than the outright one. Spain to get a couple v the French is the bet.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Spain 2-1 France
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Spain Score 1.50+ goals at 2.35
