Euro 2012
2012-06-15 - England vs Sweden
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group D
Friday 15 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
England gained an unexpected point from the first game of this group against France and could put themselves in a very strong position with a win on Friday night and all of this before Wayne Rooney returns from suspension to lead the line.
Roy Hodgson has been pragmatic with his approach to games and clearly understands that England are not really capable of playing football against some of the teams in this competition and that they have to depend on their defensive schemes and discipline. However, that is a system that will be acceptable against the likes of France while the expectation in this game is a lot different.
Therefore, it seems we may see a more familiar 4-4-2 shape for England with Andy Carroll coming in to partner Danny Welbeck and giving them an additional threat from the set pieces and dead ball situations.
It wouldn't have been lost on Hodgson that Sweden seemed to really struggle when the ball was put in the box in their loss to Ukraine in the first set of games. England already have scored from that situation in this tournament and it is likely to be an important avenue of goals going forward.
Sweden were very disappointed with their showing against Ukraine and that loss has left them in a tough spot, although the draw between France and England leaves them in a position where a win could see them leapfrog both of the more favoured nations.
It could have been so much better for Sweden if they had not missed some big chances in the final five minutes to salvage a point against Ukraine, or if they had managed to hold on to their 0-1 lead for a little more than the five minutes they did in that game.
While they are disappinted, the noises coming out of the Sweden camp is that they are still very confident they can beat England and put their Euro 2012 campaign back on the right path. However, there has to be some concerns with the rumours that there were some big bust ups between players and the management as well as amongst the players themselves ahead of this game.
Head to Head
England do not have a good record against Sweden, although they did beat them 1-0 in an international friendly last November.
That was the first time England had beaten Sweden since 1968, a run of 13 games.
That run includes draws in the World Cup 2002 and World Cup 2006 group stages, while Sweden beat England 2-1 when they met in the European Championships of 1992.
Prediction
I know Sweden did not play a great game in their loss to Ukraine to open up this tournament, but I still believe they are a tougher team that many will think and they will pose England problems.
I am a little concerned about the stories of dressing room unrest, especially considering they are still very much involved in the group and a win could really set Sweden up to get through to the last eight of the competition.
England look like a tough team to beat, but they also looked very average going forward in open play and I think they will look to exploit any set piece opportunites they get. Their record against Sweden is poor to say the least and the two draws at the World Cups of 2002 and 2006 have to be a concern.
However, England's win over Sweden in an international friendly last November, their first in 13 games overall against them, should break any mental barriers they may have that they can win this game.
This match has is going to be tough for both teams, but I think England have the better defensive discipline and that could prove to be the difference when it is all said and done. I think the match will be tense, and it will be tough, but the best way to attack it looks like taking England to win by a single goal.
I did consider taking England to 'win to nil', but I think there have only been three clean sheets kept in this entire tournament so far and taking England to ride their defensive duties to a vital three points looks the best bet for me.
The Pick :
England 1-0 Sweden
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take England to win by 1 goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 (Bet Victor)
