Euro 2012
2012-06-13 - Denmark vs Portugal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group B
Wednesday 13 June 2012 - Kick Off 5pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
There is a real potential that the 'group of death' will not just see the demise of one of the bigger nations, but two after Denmark beat Holland 1-0 in the opening round of games. That means the Danes could virtually seal their place in the next stage if they win this game and then the Dutch fail to beat Germany in the later game.
Denmark were a touch fortunate to win their game with Holland as they allowed a number of clear cut opportunities to their more illustrious opponents and they cannot be so open in this one if they are to get the points that will see them into the Quarter Finals. In all honesty, a draw for the Danes would not be a bad result as that would leave them three points clear of Portugal and four points clear of Holland who will have to get a result against the Germans.
They will also be confident they can do so having finished above Portugal in both the World Cup qualifying in 2010 and the qualifying campaign for this competition when they forced Portugal to win a Play Off to get to the event.
Portugal would have been a little disappointed they were beaten by Germany having held out for so long and a little bit of luck would surely have seen them pick up a point. That result means they have to come out and attack in this one as anything less than the three points will put them under a lot of pressure in the final game by Holland, whereas a win in this one would mean they can avoid defeat against the Dutch to give them a chance to get through to the Quarter Finals.
They will need more out of Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani who were both a little too quiet in the game against Germany- both of those players scored the goals against Denmark in the qualifying campaign so their importance cannot be understated.
Paulo Bento has also spoken about the qualification campaign and has openly questioned the way Denmark will approach this game. He talked about the change in circumstances as Denmark had to win the last time these nations played whereas now they can afford not to lose to put themselves in a strong position in the group.
Head to Head
These two have become very familiar with one another over the last three years and this will actually be the fifth meeting in that time.
Denmark lead the head to head in those four games 2-1 with the other ending in a 1-1 draw.
Both teams won their home game during the qualification campaign, Portugal winning 3-1 in Lisbon and Denmark winning 2-1 in Copenhagen.
Prediction
I am trying not to get too caught up with the Denmark performance in their game with Holland, despite the fact they clearly rode their luck for long periods of that game and it took some special misses from the Dutch players to prevent them getting at least a point and possibly winning that game.
Denmark are clearly something of a bogey team for Portugal having lost just 1 of their 4 meetings over the last three years, all of those games being competitive fixtures so no excuses of 'it's only a friendly' can be used.
I was a little disappointed with Portugal's attacking threat in their game with Germany, but I think they were happy defending deep and they did have a few lively moments that makes me think they will have opportunities to score goals in this game.
The Danes are going to man-mark Cristiano Ronaldo to reduce his effectiveness which means the other supporting cast in the Portugal line up have to play to their potential, particularly Nani who can put in some special performances.
However, I think Paulo Bento may be on to something when he says there will be the sub-concious thought that Denmark can afford to sit back and try and contain Portugal and that may play to the Portuguese advantage. They did beat Denmark 3-1 at home in the qualifying campaign so they won't be too downbeat in having to face them here, while the onus is on Portugal to win the game to give themselves a chance of getting out of the group.
I think there will be a few goals in the game if Portugal do win as a quick look at their head to head over the years has shown that goals have never been at a premium and I think the Danes will know the importance of getting a point and are likely to push forward if they do fall behind.
Therefore, I will take a small interest on Portugal to win this game and at least 3 goals to be scored which is offered at 4.00 by Ladbrokes.
The Pick :
Denmark 1-2 Portugal
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Portugal to win and at least 3 goals to be scored @ Ladbrokes (Quatro)
