Euro 2012
2012-06-11 - Ukraine vs Sweden
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group D
Monday 11 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
The final game of the first round of the group stages involves in the second co-host of the tournament as the Ukraine get underway against Sweden with both believing they have a chance of getting out of a group despite it containing two 'bigger' nations in England and France.
Ukraine had failed to qualify for the last two major international tournaments, but their home record in qualification has proved that they will not be an easy task for anyone at this tournament. They have lost just 2 of their last 12 qualifying games at home and that is despite playing the likes of Italy, France, England and Croatia amongst those games.
However, the team is not really considered as good as in previous years with injuries taking their toll on the squad, while an illness swept through their team just days before this tournament was to begin. The Ukraine are not overly concerned about the illness as they have had the additional time before they were due to start the competition and they should be ready to go.
While they won't be an easy test for any team, the Ukraine have a tough ask getting out of the group if they cannot get a result in this game against Sweden. The Swedes qualified for this tournament having finished behind Holland in the group, but their record was impressive enough to ensure automatic qualification as the best second placed team and thus avoid a difficult Play Off game.
Sweden have proved capable of scoring goals, but they also conceded far too many and it is telling that they only kept one clean sheet away from home while qualifying and that came against San Marino. They will look to exploit their ability at set pieces in this game, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep the Ukraine out at the other end.
The motivation for the three points will be high for both teams, although Ukraine also have to be careful as the co-hosts/hosts of the recent European Championships have failed to live up to the expectation, including Poland who drew 1-1 in their first group game to open the event.
Head to Head
These two nations have only met three times previously, all coming in international friendlies. Both teams have recorded one win and the other game ended in a draw.
Sweden actually won 0-1 in the Ukraine last August in a friendly thanks to a last minute goal.
Prediction
I did consider taking Sweden to win this game as my pick from this game, but I think Ukraine's strong home record in the last few years in the qualifying section makes me think that they may not have enough in them to grab the three points.
I don't think the Ukraine are as good a side as some of the others in this competition, but the home advantage could be a bigger key for them than it is for Poland and their lack of competitive losses at home in recent games suggests they may be able to surprise and get through to the last eight of this one.
However, it is going to be a tough ask for them with the other two teams in the group and I still think Sweden are a team that should not be under-estimated. They have some real talented players that can make a difference, although I think they will accept a draw from this game.
A draw is what I will play as the co-hosts/hosts of European Championships have generally failed to win their opening game over the last few tournaments, but I think the Ukraine will have enough about them to avoid a loss too.
Both sides are likely to score in the draw and it should also give both an opportunity to qualify for the last eight. Neither side will want to lose no matter what happens in the France-England game as a defeat will leave them in a big hole so the draw looks a decent shout in this one.
The Pick :
Ukraine 1-1 Sweden
