MLB Baseball
2012-05-18 - New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Baseball : North America : MLB
Friday, May 18th, 2012, 7:07PM US
(12:07AM GMT)
PREVIEW
At 21-17 the Mets have clearly surprised a lot of people, but they burned me the other day when I bet on them against the Brewers and it's put me off them, especially on the road when they're playing a team I like and rate highly, Toronto.
The Blue Jays are 21-18, and have Bautista hotting up on offence, as he has 5 homers and 7RBIs in his last 7 games, batting .333 now and I feel he will have continued success tonight in interleague play.
The Mets send out Jon Niese, who is 2-1 with a 3.40ERA. Bear in mind, despite the decent ERA he has not won in over a month now. The other problem is his inability to control pitches, which means a high pitch count and early exit. Only once this season has he started and lasted 7 innings. His interleague stats show a 4.86ERA in 6 starts, which is hardly reliable on the road against a big hitting team. The Mets are giving up 6.06 away from home this season, which is too high.
The Blue Jays are fresh off sweeping the New York Yankees, and send out Ricky Romero to continue the wins against the NY sides. The southpaw is 4-1 with a 3.88ERA and is actually off his first loss of the season, when he allowed 4 runs to have his side get beaten by the lowly Minnesota Twins. That will hurt, and at home I expect that to spur him into a better performance. Keep in mind, in direct contrast to Niese, Romero has shone in interleague play, owning a 1.88ERA in 9 starts.
BETTING VERDICT
The Mets have not faced Toronto since 2006, so we don't have recent head-to-head to go by. Toronto just swept the Yankees, and they are at home with a solid pitcher. I will take them to keep winning.
The Pick :
Toronto Blue Jays
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ 2.47 (Pinnacle)
