CREWE v SOUTHEND
Football : English : League Two
Saturday, May 12th, 2012, 5:30PM GMT

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PREVIEW

I think the price on Southend is way too high, given the fact they finished 4th, only narrowly missing out on automatic promotion by 1 point. Sure, Crewe are on a 16 match unbeaten streak, which they have needed too as that amazing sun has netted them the last playoff spot, and only just by 2 points, but Southends form coming into this has been clinical.

Crewe have been scoring too, getting on the sheet in each of those last 16 games. But this does not mean they will here again. You see, Southend have been seriously stingy at the back in the final games of the season. Since losing 2-0 at Bradford, Southend have not conceded a single goal in the last 5 games of the season, winning 4, including 3 straight coming into this. In that time, they have scored 9 goals, almost 2 per game.

Southend are being disrespected by prices over 3.00 in every book. Pinnacle has them at 3.15, which is crazy considering this team could have been promoted already, and that they have scored more goals away from home than any other team, 41 and counting. They scored 3 in their last visit here, when they defeated Crewe 3-1. In fact, they did the double of Crewe this season, and were top of the table at one stage before suffering a slump. As I said, the last 5 games shows they are no longer in that slump, and look rock solid in defence, something that will count a lot towards the result.

The BBC reports say Southend have a fit squad with no injury concerns, while Crewe, who must be feeling the effects of their 16 game unbeaten run, are sweating on the fitness of captain Dave Artell. Artell did his hamstring and was out for 3 games, but has apparently suffered a new injury in training.

BETTING VERDICT

Looking at previous results, I see there is hardly ever a draw in this fixture. Southend and Crewe have not played out a draw in 13 matches, and in 5 of the last 7 meetings, it has been the away side that has come out victorious. Let's continue with that trend, and help ourselves to the best value price of the playoffs. Take Southend to win.

The Pick :

Southend to win

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Southend to win @ 3.15 (Pinnacle)