English FA CUP
2012-05-05 - Chelsea vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English FA Cup Final
Saturday 5 May 2012 - Kick Off 5:15pm
This game is live on TV
Chelsea
Chelsea's 0-2 home loss to Newcastle United on Wednesday night means it is more than a little unlikely that they are going to finish in the top 4 in the Premier League. However, they can still end their season with a lot of success and celebration if they can secure the FA Cup on Saturday and then the Champions League two weeks later.
Their path through to the Cup Final has been fairly straight forward in terms of teams they have been drawn with, although a couple of London derbies were put in their way. The Blues beat Portsmouth at home, QPR at Loftus Road, Birmingham at St Andrews after a replay, Leicester at home and then the win over Tottenham in the Semi Final.
There is no doubt that Chelsea have rode their luck a little since Roberto Di Matteo has taken over from Andre Villa-Boas, including a 'ghost' goal in the Semi Final against Spurs that put them 2-0 up, no doubt a game changing goal. Confidence should also be high in the team as the defeat against Newcastle was their first in 12 games in all competitions.
Gary Cahill and David Luiz were hoping to be passed fit for the game, but both have been ruled out. Didier Drogba and Fernando Torres are duelling for the sole spot up front, while the likes of Ashley Cole, Frank Lampard and Juan Mata will be restored to the starting XI after missing out on Wednesday.
Liverpool
After the money that has been spent since Kenny Dalglish returned as manager of Liverpool, this has to be considered a disappointing season at the moment as there was no real challenge for a place in the Champions League and they are behind Everton in the League table. However, they have won the Carling Cup and winning this competition will at least have the fans feeling like they are making progress.
Liverpool have been fortunate in earning a home draw in the first four rounds they competed in the FA Cup, although they still had to win those games. They beat Oldham, Manchester United, Brighton and Stoke at Anfield before recovering from a goal down to beat Everton in the Cup Semi Final last month.
The team have been handed a couple of disappointing defeats at Anfield in the League in recent games, but they have won 3 of their last 5 in all competitions before this one. Liverpool's League form has been inconsistent at best all season, but they have really found a great formula in the Cups where they are 10-2-0 this season, including going 1-1-0 at Wembley.
Lucas and Charlie Adam are long term injuries for Liverpool but there are no new injury worries for Kenny Dalglish. The likes of Pepe Reina, Jose Enrique, Steven Gerrard and Luis Suarez are all expected to be restored having been rested in the 0-1 loss to Fulham on Tuesday.
Head to Head
This is going to be the fourth time that Liverpool have faced Chelsea since Kenny Dalglish has returned to the club and they have won all three previous games, including two this season.
Both of the wins this season for Liverpool have come at Stamford Bridge- in fact, all three Liverpool wins since Dalglish returned to the manager's role have come at Stamford Bridge.
Liverpool have won the last 4 games between the teams in all competitions since Chelsea did the double over them in the 2009/10 season.
Prediction
This is a tough Final to predict as I think Chelsea have been in the better form, but Liverpool seem to match up well with their side and cause the Blues plenty of problems.
I can't really separate the teams too much and I think there is a real chance that we could see extra time in this one, so the angle I will try is picking that there will be less than 3 goals in the game.
Since the new Wembley has opened, there have been 5 FA Cup Finals here- 4 of those has seen 1 goal or fewer scored, the only exception being when Chelsea beat Everton 2-1 in 2009 and even that could be down to the fact that Louis Saha scored within the first minute of the game.
5 of the last 6 games between these sides have also seen two or fewer goals scored so all the stats point to another low scoring game.
Both teams will be forgiven for being a little tense to start the game as they both know their whole season could be analysed by whether they win this competition or not- if Liverpool win it, the fans will go into the Summer thinking there is some progress being made at the club; if Chelsea win, they will at least be able to relieve some of the pressure of having their whole season on the line in the Champions League Final.
I did consider the draw, but I am going to take the Under option in case one of the teams manage to get a goal in normal time and then defend it out to become the fourth 1-0 winner in 6 seasons the Final has been played on this ground.
The Pick :
Chelsea 1-0 Liverpool
