English Premier
2012-05-06 - Newcastle United vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Sunday 6 May 2012 - Kick Off 1:30pm
This game is live on TV
Newcastle United
A magical season looked to have come to a halt for Newcastle United when they were beaten 4-0 at Wigan Athletic last weekend, but they quickly got back on the horse with an impressive win at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night. That means they are still in line for a shot to get into the Champions League, although this game will mean as much to them as it does to all Manchester United fans.
Newcastle are 5th in the Premier League, but they are only behind Tottenham Hotspur on goal difference and they are just 1 point behind Arsenal in 3rd place at the start of the weekend. However, the team have the hardest fixtures of the three teams on paper and just being in the position they are is a fantastic achievement for Alan Pardew and the management team. Newcastle are 11-5-2 at home this season, scoring 29 goals and conceding 15.
Despite the loss at Wigan, Newcastle have picked up 21 points from the last 24 available in the Premier League to keep them pressing the sides above them in the race for a top 4 finish. They are unbeaten in their last 9 home games in the Premier League, winning the last 4 in a row without conceding a goal.
Cheick Tiote was stretchered off in the win at Chelsea, but he was seen laughing on the bench after that moment and is set to start in this one. Danny Simpson missed the game at Stamford Bridge and will need to pass a late fitness test for this game.
Manchester City
A 1-0 win over Manchester United on Monday night means Manchester City have erased an 8 point lead at the top of the table and they are now in complete control of their own destiny. They lead the table on goal difference to such an extent that two wins from their last two League games is likely to see the Premier League trophy move across Manchester to the Etihad Stadium.
City currently have an 8 goal advantage over rivals United in the League table so it seems inconceivable that the latter will be able to overturn their lead in the table if City win both remaining games. Their form at the Etihad Stadium has been virtually perfect, but they are a little more vulnerable away from home where they are 9-4-5 this season, scoring 36 goals and conceding 17.
While the away record is impressive in the grand scheme of things, they had won just 2 of their previous 10 away games in the League before winning back to back at Norwich City and Wolves. Since their win at Old Trafford back in October, City have won just 5 of their 13 away games in the League, all coming against sides that occupy the bottom 7 places in the League.
Joe Hart apparently suffered a foot injury in the win over United on Monday night, but he should be fit to start this game with an extra days rest and Roberto Mancini is set to start the same XI as Monday night.
Head to Head
Manchester City beat Newcastle United 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season, and they bring a pretty strong recent record at St James' Park into this game.
City won 1-3 here last season and have now won 3 of their last 4 League games on this ground.
Prediction
I don't know if it is the Manchester United fan in me coming out, or whether I am letting my head rule my heart, but this is definitely not going to be an easy game for Manchester City as they face a team in form, and with plenty of motivation to perform.
This is clearly the toughest game left on the schedule for either City or United and I honestly think it will be the one that determines where the title will be heading this season.
You will hear about this being City's destiny having last won the title in the 1968 season with a 3-4 at this ground on the final day of the season to take the title from United, but Newcastle were 10th in the table that season and they are a much tougher test this season.
Newcastle have been in great form in recent weeks, excluding the non-performance at Wigan last weekend, and they have enjoyed a long unbeaten run at home that began with a 3-0 crushing of Manchester United.
Manchester City have also looked a touch vulnerable in their recent away games- even the wins at Norwich and Wolves look comfortable on paper, but there were moments in it for the home side while there was still only a one goal lead for City.
They may have won 9 away games so far this season, but only 2 of those have come against sides in the top half of the table with the last of those back in October. Since then they have failed to win at Liverpool, Chelsea, West Brom, Sunderland, Everton, Swansea, Stoke City and Arsenal and I don't think Newcastle's team would be out of place in that list.
Again the layers have priced the City win at short odds on because they 'need' to win the game, but that has failed to factor in the importance of the game for Newcastle too.
The first goal will be absolutely crucial in this one, as it usually is in these pressure filled environments, but I do genuinely believe the layers are pushing the boat out with the price of 2.38 that Newcastle avoid defeat in this one.
Newcastle have only been beaten by Chelsea out of all the sides they have faced in the top 8 at home this season, beating Manchester United and Liverpool here too. The 2.38 just seems far too disrespecting of their chances to do the same again here, especially considering how City have performed away from home in the last four months against the 'better' teams in the League.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City
