English Premier
2012-05-06 - Bolton Wanderers vs West Bromwich Albion
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : English : Premier League
Sunday, May 6th, 2012, 2:00PM GMT
PREVIEW
Like QPR, Bolton are fighting for their lives, but have a chance as they are playing this one at home, against a team that might let their heads drop as they are about to lose the manager they love. Roy Hodgson has been appointed England manager, so the Baggies will either put in a mammoth effort to send him off in style in 2 games, or slump with the bad news. Either way, they're going to get attack from the get go, as Bolton need 3 points and nothing less if they are to survive.
History suggest this game will be low-scoring, with 11 league meetings producing just 20 goals, less than 2 a game. The Baggies have failed to even score in their last 3 League visits to the Reebok Stadium! However, this is a team that is not useless on the road. Their road record is bettered only by the 5 teams sitting at the top of the table! The Baggies only just went to Liverpool and pulled off a 1-0 win, so they cannot be taken for granted at all.
Bolton do well when taking the lead, dropping just 4 points, but that stat is misleading as they hardly take the lead, which is why they are struggling. Bolton have won just 1 of their last 6 games in the league, and their last 3 home games have seen them fail to pick up wins.
For all those that say, surely Bolton win because they need it now, that was true in the last game and the one before that. What happened then? No, desperation for points only works in favour of the other team, if they are opportunistic as West Brom. Roy himself will not want to leave the club on the back of 2 poor performances.
7 of the last 11 matches between these two sides have ended in draws, with the other 4 games being shared in wins between the two. West Broms game always tend to have at least one side fail to score, and looking back through their last 6 games they have either won or lost to nil, with the one draw seeing both sides blank each other. I still think this game is going to have goals in it.
BETTING VERDICT
Bolton are desperate and my arguments from their last match, against Spurs, hold strong here too. Bolton need to attack from the get go, and I don't doubt they will score, but that kind of reckless play (and it will have to be a bit reckless at this stage) will result in chances for the opposition.
West Brom could well snatch this game by scoring a couple of goals on the break but the odds are high and for those that want to take the risk.
I'm going to take a chance on the Baggies to avoid defeat.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
West Brom to avoid defeat
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take West Brom Albion +0.25AH @ 2.23 (188Bet)
