English Premier
2012-05-05 - Arsenal vs Norwich City
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : English : Premier League
Saturday, May 5th, 2012, 12:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
I don't think I'm being arrogant about Arsenal when I declare this game a banker. The Gunners need all 3 points if they are to maintain control of 3rd place, after Tottenham took 3 points at Bolton in midweek, and improved their goal difference to within 1 of Arsenal.
Just 1 point separates the two North London sides, and Newcastle are just further point behind, looking like serious contenders after that quite brilliant 2-0 win at Chelsea. Arsenal simply cannot afford to slip up.
Arsenal have a very strong record at home this season. The Gunners have dropped just 3 games at the Emirates and won 12, with 3 ending in a stalemate. The defence has been a lot better than it has in recent seasons, with the Gunners keeping clean sheets in 44% of their home games!
That last stat does not bode well for Norwich who, having put on such an amazing show for most of the season, are now suffering. Norwich have overachieved, not just guaranteeing their place in the Premier League for next season, but beating some big names.
However, Norwich are now slumping at the end of the long football season, and even their goals have dried up. Their last 6 games have seen them win just once (at Spurs!) and their last 3 matches have seen them lose while scoring just 1. After their 2-1 win at the Lane, Norwich have been battered 6-1 at home by Manchester City, and then suffer 2-0 and 3-0 losses to Blackburn and Liverpool.
Norwich have won just 5 away games all season, losing 9 and drawing 4. However, much of the good work came a while ago, which is why they are safe. Their last 9 away games have seen them fail to draw and the only win in their last 5 away games was to Tottenham.
The last time Norwich met Arsenal, the Gunners beat the Canaries at Carrow Road 2-1, with Robin Van Persie scoring both. The Captain has been quiet of late, having done most of the work for most of the season. He has just 2 goals in his las 8 matches, and you have to think he is due now, as he has had his chances in every game, but failed to take them. Whenever Arsenal have been in need for someone to drag them over the line, it's been him.
Norwich have now conceded 11 in their last 3, and scored just 1. Arsenal have done themselves no favours by losing to Wigan and then drawing 0-0 with Chelsea and 1-1 with Stoke but I think we are going to see the Gunners turn it on against a Norwich side that just wants the season to be over, such is their fatigue.
BETTING VERDICT
I think you can safely stick Arsenal @ 1.25 into your accumulators as they will win. It's been a while now since the captain scored, but I think the bookies have got it right by pricing him all the way down to score at any time because you just know he's going to have his say in this match, but prices of 1.50 are not worth bothering with.
I would have a good look at Vermaelen to score @ 5.00, or even Rosicky at 4.50 as one is always there in set pieces while the Czech has just been named player of the month for the second month in a row and that should ensure another cracking performance from him.
But still, I can't shake the feeling Persie is going to put on a show for us. I know it's a risky bet, but we can keep stakes small and take it for interest. A fe bookies have stuck their necks out and offered a lot more on Persie to net at least twice, and I think that value should not be ignored. Bet365 offer just 2.2 but you can get 3.50 at a few places. That has to be my main bet, albeit a risky one.
For those of you that do not like risk, take Arsenal to score 3 goals at a decent priced 1.95.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal to score at least 3
BEST BETTING TIP :
MAIN BET:Take Robin Van Persie to score 2 or more @ 3.50
Also consider Arsenal Team Total - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95
