Chelsea vs Newcastle United Betting Pick | English Premier

English Premier

2012-05-02 - Chelsea vs Newcastle United

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Chelsea v Newcastle United
Football: English Premier League
Wednesday 2 May 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm

Chelsea

This could be a really special end to the season for Chelsea after what seemed like a wasted year a couple of months ago under the stewardship of Andre Villa-Boas. Roberto Di Matteo has taken over as manager and steadied the ship to such an extent that the Blues are in the mix to finish in the top 4 in the Premier League and have Finals to look forward to in the FA Cup and the Champions League.

Chelsea are 6th in the Premier League, but they are just 1 point behind Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United in 4th and 5th respectively and they could find themselves in the top 4 this evening if they win this game and Spurs fail to do the same at Bolton Wanderers. The team have a solid 11-3-3 record at Stamford Bridge in the League this season, scoring 39 goals and conceding 21. Only the current top 4 have won more home games so far, while only the two Manchester clubs have scored more home goals.

The team should be plenty high in confidence after following up the Champions League Semi Final success over Barcelona with a thumping 6-1 win against QPR here on Sunday. That means Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 11 games in all competitions since a loss to Manchester City, a run that has seen them play Tottenham (twice), Arsenal, Barcelona (twice) and Benfica (twice). Chelsea have won 4 of their last 5 home games in the Premier League.

David Luiz and Gary Cahill will not be risked in this game in the hope that both are ready for the FA Cup Final on Saturday and also for the Champions League Final when Chelsea will be without John Terry. Branislav Ivanovic returns from suspension, while I don't think there will be the wholesale changes that Kenny Dalglish made for Liverpool last night.

Newcastle United

Alan Pardew blamed himself for the performance at Wigan Athletic on Saturday that saw Newcastle United lose 4-0 and also lose momentum they had picked up in previous weeks. The manager has always maintained getting into the Champions League would likely be beyond his side, but he will know they still have a real chance if they can avoid a defeat in this game.

The Magpies are still in the mix for a Champions League spot, despite the loss at the DW Stadium, although they did lose their 4th spot on goal difference to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. They have a 7-3-7 away record so far this season, scoring 24 goals and conceding 31, meaning only the top 3 teams have more away wins and away goals.

Newcastle had won 6 games in a row in the Premier League before the surprise loss at Wigan on Saturday, but only 2 of those wins had come away from home. They have lost on their last 3 visits to London, although they can consider themselves extremely unfortunate to lose at Arsenal when conceding a 93rd minute winner. Newcastle have not drawn away from home in their last 10 Premier League games, winning 4 of those games.

Danny Simpson should be fit to take his place in the side, while Gabriel Obertan and Sylvain Marveaux are both back in training and travelling with the squad.

Head to Head

Chelsea won 0-3 at St James' Park earlier this season, although the scoreline was flattering as the Blues grabbed two late goals after Steven Taylor was forced off with an injury and left the home team with ten men.

Before that win, Chelsea had only won 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions against Newcastle, failing to win any of the 3 meetings in the 2011 season.

Chelsea have failed to win any of their last 3 home games in all competitions against Newcastle.

Prediction

This game is going to come down to how Newcastle United react to their heavy defeat at Wigan Athletic over the weekend, but it does look like Chelsea are very short considering they have a big FA Cup Final on the horizon.

This game is just as important to the home team, although 4th place is not in their hands while the FA Cup and Champions League Finals are. I expect there will be some changes and that may make the game tougher than some may think, especially considering Newcastle are likely to make life much more difficult than they did for Wigan.

Newcastle also have a very good recent record at Stamford Bridge and I think backing them on the Asian Handicap with more than a goal headstart looks the way to go.

The last three games here have seen Newcastle avoid defeat, while the three previous games had all resulted in a one goal win for Chelsea so the handicap looks the best way to go.