English Premier
2012-05-01 - Liverpool vs Fulham
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Tuesday 1 May 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
Liverpool
There is something for Liverpool to play for in the Premier League and that is finishing above local rivals Everton, but you would have to be a little optimistic in thinking that the team is not looking ahead to the FA Cup Final on Saturday. With that in mind, I am sure there will be some changes to the team that won at Norwich City on Saturday, while the players that do play are likely to be wanting to avoid any foolish tackles or injuries.
Liverpool are 8th in the Premier League table and they remain 2 points behind Everton in the table with just three games left to play this season. It has been talked about heavily all year, but it is the form at Anfield that has let the side down. Liverpool are 5-9-3 at home in the League, scoring 20 goals and conceding 14.
The team have won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions so should be full of confidence ahead of the Cup Final on Saturday. Their home form in the League remains patchy at best, failing to win any of their last 3 while losing 2 of those to Wigan Athletic and West Brom. Liverpool have won just 1 of their last 7 League games at Anfield.
Andy Carroll is available after missing the game at Carrow Road over the weekend. There are expected to be a number of changes as I mentioned above, with the likes of Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez and perhaps Pepe Reina rested.
Fulham
Martin Jol will be expecting a reaction from his side after they lost on Merseyside 4-0 over the weekend, but this is a chance to exorcise those demons in the same City. Fulham have had a successful season considering it is only the first that Jol has been in charge, but the Dutchman will expect more from his troops than he got on Saturday.
Fulham are 9th in the Premier League table, but they can join Liverpool on 49 points if they get the win tonight, while a place in the top half of the table is still more than within their grasp. The team are 3-5-9 away from home this season, scoring 11 goals and conceding 23, making them the joint lowest away scorers in the League along with Stoke City.
They had been unbeaten in 4 League games, winning 3 of those, before the 4-0 loss at Everton, although most of the previous 4 games had taken place at Craven Cottage. Fulham have won 2 and lost 5 of their last 7 away games in the Premier League.
Jol missed the game at Goodison Park with an illness, but will be back in the dugout today. Stephen Kelly and Andrew Johnson are both doubtful.
Head to Head
Fulham beat Liverpool 1-0 at Craven Cottage earlier this season and will go for their first League double over Liverpool ever.
Liverpool won this game 1-0 last season, but had failed to beat Fulham the previous 2 times they had visited Anfield.
The Reds have won 5 of their last 7 home games against Fulham.
Prediction
With the home side expected to make a number of changes to their side, as well as the fact that players will already be looking ahead to the game against Chelsea in the FA Cup Final, I think the short odds quotes for a home win look ridiculous.
They look even sillier when considering Liverpool have won so few of their home games in the League this season and there is no way I would want to back Liverpool at those prices.
However, Fulham have really struggled for consistency away from Craven Cottage, much as they have over the last few seasons, so it is tough recommending them here either.
Instead, I am going to look at the goals market and I am surprised to see the Under option is actually the bigger priced of the two scenarios.
The last three games at Anfield between the teams have been tight affairs, with two ending 0-0 and the other a 1-0 win for Liverpool. Overall, 8 of the last 10 between these teams have seen 2 goals or fewer.
Fulham have also been involved in low-scoring games at Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United this season, while Liverpool's struggles for goals at Anfield have been well-documented.
While the Under looks the best way to play this game, I am recommending a small interest on Under 1.5 Goals which has been priced up at 4.00 by Ladbrokes- 5 of the last 7 between these teams, including the last 3 at Anfield, would have seen that market end as a winner.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 0-0 Fulham
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Under 1.5 Goals @ 4.00 (Ladbrokes)
