NBA Basketball
2012-04-21 - Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Saturday 21 April 2012 - Tip Off 5:30pm ET
10:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a big game for both teams in the Western Conference as the Play Off picture can be made a little clearer depending on which of these teams wins the game. The Denver Nuggets (34-28) have a 1.5 game lead over Utah, but also have one more game to play, while the Phoenix Suns (33-30) are just in the Number 8 seed thanks to a head to head record against the Utah Jazz.
If Denver win this game, they will essentially lock up the Number 7 seed in the Western Conference, but a loss will not be terminal to their chances as they do have that extra game left on their schedule.
Phoenix will maintain their position with a win, but they also have yet to entertain Utah which means a win here and against the Jazz would book their place back in the post-season for the first time since 2010.
Alvin Gentry, the Phoenix head coach has made it clear that his side cannot look ahead to the Utah game and must look to get their job done by winning this game. The Suns beat the LA Clippers by 3 points in their last game as they keep grinding out the W's.
Denver are actually just 6-10 on the road since Valentine's Day and they actually lost their last game against the LA Clippers as they look to avoid back to back defeats for the first time since the end of March.
Head to Head
Denver have actually won the last 5 games in the series, although 4 of those have come in Colorado. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 against the spread in those games.
Phoenix had won 12 games in a row at home against Denver before being beaten here last March.
Phoenix are 18-13 against the spread at home this season, Denver are 19-11 on the road.
Phoenix are 15-8 against the spread as the favourite, Denver are 15-9 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Phoenix have won their last 6 games against the spread as the home favourite.
Denver are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games against teams from the Western Conference.
Prediction
I am going to take the Phoenix Suns to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think this game means a lot more to them than the Denver Nuggets who host the short-handed Orlando Magic tomorrow night, a win that will effectively seal their place in the Play Offs.
Second, aside from the last game here, Phoenix have dominated Denver here in the series and they are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games played here.
Third, Denver are 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 road games, Phoenix are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 home games.
The Pick :
Phoenix Suns 114-105 Denver Nuggets
