Eng. Championship
2012-04-21 - Brighton vs Birmingham City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Championship
Saturday 21 April 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Brighton
A late season collapse in form has meant Brighton have missed their opportunity to make the Play Offs this season, although they will not want to end their first season at the Amex Stadium without giving their fans one more thing to cheer about. Gus Poyet will keep telling his troops that it has been a successful season and that can give their fans much optimism for the new season right now.
The team are 9th in the Championship and are 7 points behind Cardiff City in the final Play Off spot with just 2 League games left to play. They have an 11-7-4 record at the Amex this season, scoring 35 goals and conceding 20 in those games.
They have failed to win any of their last 6 League games and that has seen them drop out of the top 6 positions in the table. Brighton have failed to win any of their last 3 home games in the League, but they had been very strong here before that and they have been a little unfortunate not to have recorded wins in the last 3 here.
Gordon Greer is missing for the home side, but Vicente could return from an illness.
Birmingham City
Birmingham City are still not secured of a Play Off place in the Championship this season, although they only need 1 point from the last 2 League games they have left to play this season. More importantly, they are certainly not guaranteed which position they are going to finish between 4th and 6th.
They have picked up 72 points so far this season and that leaves them 5 points ahead of Middlesbrough just outside the Play Off positions. The Blues are only 1 point ahead of Blackpool and Cardiff City as the fight for positions within the Play Off berths continues. Birmingham are 7-6-9 away from home this season, scoring 40 goals and conceding 36.
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 7 League games, although they don't have great momentum right now as they have drawn 3 in a row. They are unbeaten in their last 4 away games in the Championship, drawing the last 2.
Steven Caldwell has been ruled out for the rest of the season and Keith Fahey looks like he will miss this game. Jordan Mutch is back in the squad.
Head to Head
These two teams played out a 0-0 draw earlier this season at St Andrews.
This is the first time they will have met in Brighton in 15 seasons when Birmingham won 0-1 in a League Cup tie.
Prediction
This is actually a more important game for Birmingham City in relation to positions within the Play Offs than it is for Brighton, but I think the home team will be fired up in their final home game of the season.
Brighton have created plenty of chances in their games at the Amex Stadium and I expect they will be able to create more against a Birmingham side that have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games on their travels.
Birmingham have conceded at least 3 goals in half of their last 6 away games, while Brighton have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 8 at home.
With that in mind, I think taking Brighton to score at least 2 goals in this game at 2.70 looks the best way to get on this game. With Birmingham scoring 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 games, Brighton may even reach this target in a losing effort so it looks a more appealing price than backing anyone in the win-draw-win market.
The Pick :
Brighton 2-2 Birmingham City
